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Are credit ratings valuable information?

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  • Dirk Czarnitzki
  • Kornelius Kraft

Abstract

Credit ratings are commonly used by lenders to assess the default risk, because every credit is connected with a possible loss. If the probability of a default is above a certain threshold, a credit will not be provided. The purpose of this study is to test whether credit ratings contribute valuable information on the creditworthiness of firms. Employing a large sample of Western German manufacturing firms, we investigate loan defaults. First, we estimate Probit models with publicly available information. Subsequently, we additionally use a credit rating and show that it contributes significantly to the regression fit. However, the publicly available information has an independent effect aside of the ratings. Simple calculations demonstrate that the interest rate has to increase significantly to compensate for a possible loss in case of default, if a firm has a weak rating.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Czarnitzki & Kornelius Kraft, 2007. "Are credit ratings valuable information?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1061-1070.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:13:p:1061-1070
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600749220
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    9. Thomas Lagner & Dodozu Knyphausen‐Aufseß, 2012. "Rating Agencies as Gatekeepers to the Capital Market: Practical Implications of 40 Years of Research," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 157-202, August.
    10. Ngare, Philip, 2019. "Analysis of the coexistence of conventional and unconventional credit markets in the agribusiness sector in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 37, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
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    15. Fantazzini, Dean & DeGiuli, Maria Elena & Figini, Silvia & Giudici, Paolo, 2009. "Enhanced credit default models for heterogeneous SME segments," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 25, pages 31-39.
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    17. Blumenstock, Hendrik & von Grone, Udo & Mehlhorn, Marc & Merkl, Johannes & Pietz, Marcus, 2012. "Einflussfaktoren von CDS-Spreads als Maß für das aktuelle Bonitätsrisiko: Liefert das Rating eine Erklärung?," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-03, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
    18. Dirk Czarnitzki & Hanna Hottenrott, 2011. "R&D investment and financing constraints of small and medium-sized firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 65-83, January.
    19. H. Semih Yildirim & Prem Mathew & Priscilla Neeliah-Chinniah, 2008. "The value of stability ratings to the Canadian income trust market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(18), pages 1465-1474.
    20. Sarah Kösters & Martin Obschonka, 2011. "Public Business Advice in the Founding Process: An Empirical Evaluation of Subjective and Economic Effects," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 29(4), pages 577-604, August.
    21. Hussinger, Katrin, 2005. "Did Concentration on Core Competencies Drive Merger and Acquisition Activities in the 1990s? Empirical Evidence for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    22. Jens Horbach & Christian Rammer, 2020. "Circular economy innovations, growth and employment at the firm level: Empirical evidence from Germany," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(3), pages 615-625, June.
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    24. B. Luppi & M. Marzo & E. Scorcu, 2007. "Credit risk and Basel II: Are non-profit firms financially different?," Working Papers 601, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

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    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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