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How consistent are credit ratings? a geographic and sectoral analysis of default risk

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  • John Ammer
  • Frank Packer

Abstract

We examine differences in default rates by sector and obligor domicile. We find evidence that credit ratings have been imperfectly calibrated across issuer sectors in the past. Controlling for year of issue and rating, default rates appear to be higher for U.S. financial firms than for U.S. industrial firms. Sectoral differences in recovery rates do not offset the higher default rates. By contrast, we do not find significant differences in default rates between U.S. and foreign firms.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ammer & Frank Packer, 2000. "How consistent are credit ratings? a geographic and sectoral analysis of default risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 668, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:668
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2000/668/default.htm
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2000/668/ifdp668.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1994. "The credit rating industry," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 1-26.
    2. Donald P. Morgan, 1998. "Judging the risk of banks: what makes banks opaque?," Research Paper 9805, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harald Uhlig & Fiorella De Fiore, 2005. "Bank Finance versus Bond Finance: What Explains the Differences Between US and Europe?," 2005 Meeting Papers 618, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Guttler, Andre & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2007. "The adjustment of credit ratings in advance of defaults," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 751-767, March.
    3. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology; An Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 02/170, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Shen, Chung-Hua & Huang, Yu-Li & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2012. "Asymmetric benchmarking in bank credit rating," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 171-193.
    5. Dirk Czarnitzki & Kornelius Kraft, 2007. "Are credit ratings valuable information?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1061-1070.
    6. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Luduvice, André Victor D. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2011. "Modeling default probabilities: The case of Brazil," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 513-534, October.
    7. Darrell Duffie & Robert Jarrow & Amiyatosh Purnanandam & Wei Yang, 2008. "Market Pricing of Deposit Insurance," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 22, pages 551-577 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Altdörfer, Marc & de las Salas Vega, Carlos A. & Guettler, Andre & Löffler, Gunter, 2016. "European versus Anglo-Saxon credit view: Evidence from the eurozone sovereign debt crisis," IWH Discussion Papers 34/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2004. "Modeling Eurobond credit ratings and forecasting downgrade probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 277-300.
    10. Mark S. Carey & Gregory P. Nini, 2004. "Is the corporate loan market globally integrated? a pricing puzzle," International Finance Discussion Papers 813, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    Keywords

    Credit ratings ; Risk;

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