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Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of Covid-19: A Panel-Model Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Lima Campos
  • Rubens Penha Cysne
  • Alexandre Madureira

Abstract

This work discusses the impact of social distancing and vaccination on the monthly variation rate of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 around the world. A statistical panel-regression model was applied to daily data for 131 countries from March, 2020 to December, 2021. The setting of suitable control variables was essential to achieve reliable results. We found, as a possible consequence of strict social distancing, a decrease of around 5.5 percentage points in the growth rate of both new cases and deaths, before vaccination. The possible impact of progress in vaccination, in 2021 was even stronger: a decrease of 9 and 12 percentage points on the growth of new cases and deaths, respectively. As a final conclusion, our dataset and the method employed did not allow to exclude either the hypothesis that strict social distancing was an important measure to control the pandemic before the advent of vaccines, nor the conjuncture that the impact of vaccination has been stronger, mainly with regard to deaths. JEL classification numbers: C13, C33, I18.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Lima Campos & Rubens Penha Cysne & Alexandre Madureira, 2023. "Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of Covid-19: A Panel-Model Analysis," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(2), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:12:y:2023:i:2:f:12_2_1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2020. "The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 509-517, August.
    2. Mark J Siedner & Guy Harling & Zahra Reynolds & Rebecca F Gilbert & Sebastien Haneuse & Atheendar S Venkataramani & Alexander C Tsai, 2020. "Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Gregory Price & Eric van Holm, 2021. "The Effect of Social Distancing on the Early Spread of the Novel Coronavirus," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2331-2340, September.
    4. Maloney,William F. & Taskin,Temel, 2020. "Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19 : A Global View," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9242, The World Bank.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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