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Industrie in der Rezession — Wachstumskräfte schwinden
[Industry in Recession — Growth Forces Dwindle]

Author

Listed:
  • Claus Michelsen

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Oliver Holtemöller

    (Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle)

  • Torsten Schmidt

    (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

  • Stefan Kooths

    (Institut für Weltwirtschaft)

  • Timo Wollmershäuser

    (ifo Zentrum für Konjunkturforschung)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die führenden deutschen Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute haben ihre Konjunkturprognose für Deutschland in ihrer Gemeinschaftsdiagnose vom Herbst 2019 deutlich nach unten korrigiert. Gründe für die schwache Entwicklung sind die nachlassende weltweite Nachfrage nach Investitionsgütern, auf deren Export die deutsche Wirtschaft spezialisiert ist, politische Unsicherheiten und strukturelle Veränderungen in der Automobilindustrie. Die Finanzpolitik stützt hingegen die gesamtwirtschaftliche Expansion. Die zukünftige Entwicklung ist stark davon abhängig, ob die Handelskonfl ikte gelöst werden können und wie der Brexit ausgestaltet wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Claus Michelsen & Oliver Holtemöller & Torsten Schmidt & Stefan Kooths & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2019. "Industrie in der Rezession — Wachstumskräfte schwinden [Industry in Recession — Growth Forces Dwindle]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(10), pages 693-696, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:99:y:2019:i:10:d:10.1007_s10273-019-2515-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-019-2515-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claus Michelsen & Guido Baldi & Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Hella Engerer & Stefan Gebauer & Malte Rieth & Thore Schlaak, 2019. "Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Unsicherheiten lasten auf Außenhandel und Industrie: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Herbst 2019," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 86(37), pages 646-655.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2019. "Potential international employment effects of a hard Brexit," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Claus Michelsen & Guido Baldi & Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Hella Engerer & Stefan Gebauer & Malte Rieth, 2019. "Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Schwacher Welthandel, aber binnenwirtschaftliche Kräfte weitgehend intakt: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Frühjahr 2019," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 86(11), pages 154-161.
    5. Amit Kara & Arno Hantzsche & Jason Lennard & Cyrille Lenoel & Marta Lopresto & Rebecca Piggott & Garry Young, 2018. "Prospects for the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 245(1), pages 10-40, August.
    6. Drygalla, Andrej & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel, 2019. "Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Szenarien für die Jahre 2018 bis 2023," IWH Online 1/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Drygalla, Andrej & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel, 2018. "Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Szenarien für die Jahre 2017 bis 2022," IWH Online 5/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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