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Potential international employment effects of a hard Brexit

Author

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  • Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich
  • Holtemöller, Oliver

Abstract

We use the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to estimate the potential employment effects of a hard Brexit in 43 countries. In line with other studies we assume that imports from the European Union (EU) to the UK will decline by 25% after a hard Brexit. The absolute effects are largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK like Germany and France. However, there are also large countries outside the EU which are heavily affected via global value chains like China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) are largest in Malta and Ireland. UK employment will also be affected via intermediate input production. Within Germany, the motor vehicle industry and in particular the 'Autostadt' Wolfsburg are most affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2019. "Potential international employment effects of a hard Brexit," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:42019
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/192952/1/1049293045.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:presci:v:97:y:2018:i:1:p:9-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Swati Dhingra & Gianmarco Ottaviano & Veronica Rappoport & Thomas Sampson & Catherine Thomas, 2018. "UK trade and FDI: A post‐Brexit perspective," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 9-24, March.
    3. repec:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:1:p:5-20 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; employment; European Union; international trade; tariffs;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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