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Tunisian constituent assembly elections: how does spatial proximity matter?

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  • Mohamed Amara

  • AbdelRahmen El Lahga

Abstract

This paper presents an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and Spatial Econometric modeling of the 2011 National Constituent Assembly elections (NCA) in Tunisia. By using electoral data at delegation level of the six main political parties (Ennahda, Congress of the Republic, Ettakatol, the Democratic Progressive Party, the Petition and the Democratie Modernist Pole), we show that geographical proximity matters in Tunisia’s voting behavior. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin model, including spatially weighted independent variables, as the best model to explain the voting phenomenon. Employing LeSage and Pace’s approach, we find that the largest direct and indirect effects are associated with age cohort and level of educational attainment. Voters who live in poorer neighborhoods are more likely to support the Petition list. Our results also show that younger voters are more likely to vote Ennahda, while older voters with high educational attainment are more likely to support Ettakatol and the Democratie Modernist Pole parties. Men are more likely to support Congress of the Republic than women voters. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Amara & AbdelRahmen El Lahga, 2016. "Tunisian constituent assembly elections: how does spatial proximity matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 65-88, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:50:y:2016:i:1:p:65-88
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-014-0137-1
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    2. Péter Reményi & Haris Gekić & Aida Bidžan-Gekić & Dávid Sümeghy, 2023. "Contextual factors influencing election results in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 5693-5712, December.
    3. Maleke FOURATI & Antonio ESTACHE, 2020. "Infrastructure Provision, Politics And Religion: Insights From Tunisia'S New Democracy," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(1), pages 29-53, March.
    4. Bo Sui & Gen-Fu Feng & Chun-Ping Chang, 2018. "The pioneer evidence of contagious corruption," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 945-968, March.

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