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Tunisian constituent assembly elections: how does spatial proximity matter?

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  • Mohamed Amara

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  • AbdelRahmen El Lahga

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Abstract

This paper presents an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and Spatial Econometric modeling of the 2011 National Constituent Assembly elections (NCA) in Tunisia. By using electoral data at delegation level of the six main political parties (Ennahda, Congress of the Republic, Ettakatol, the Democratic Progressive Party, the Petition and the Democratie Modernist Pole), we show that geographical proximity matters in Tunisia’s voting behavior. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin model, including spatially weighted independent variables, as the best model to explain the voting phenomenon. Employing LeSage and Pace’s approach, we find that the largest direct and indirect effects are associated with age cohort and level of educational attainment. Voters who live in poorer neighborhoods are more likely to support the Petition list. Our results also show that younger voters are more likely to vote Ennahda, while older voters with high educational attainment are more likely to support Ettakatol and the Democratie Modernist Pole parties. Men are more likely to support Congress of the Republic than women voters. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Amara & AbdelRahmen El Lahga, 2016. "Tunisian constituent assembly elections: how does spatial proximity matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 65-88, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:50:y:2016:i:1:p:65-88
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-014-0137-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Panu Pelkonen, 2012. "Length of compulsory education and voter turnout—evidence from a staged reform," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 51-75, January.
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    5. David Cutts & Don Webber, 2010. "Voting Patterns, Party Spending and Relative Location in England and Wales," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 735-760.
    6. Habib Ayeb, 2011. "Social and political geography of the Tunisian revolution: the alfa grass revolution," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(129), pages 467-479, September.
    7. Milligan, Kevin & Moretti, Enrico & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2004. "Does education improve citizenship? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1667-1695, August.
    8. Johnston, Ron & Propper, Carol & Burgess, Simon & Sarker, Rebecca & Bolster, Anne & Jones, Kelvyn, 2005. "Spatial Scale and the Neighbourhood Effect: Multinomial Models of Voting at Two Recent British General Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 487-514, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Estache & Maleke Fourati, 2017. "Infrastructure Provision, Politics and Religion: Insights from Tunisia's New Democracy," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-24, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. repec:spr:qualqt:v:52:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11135-017-0497-4 is not listed on IDEAS

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