IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/portec/v13y2014i2p95-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of education, family size, unemployment and childcare availability on birth stopping and timing

Author

Listed:
  • Márton Varga

Abstract

Using data from Portugal’s Fertility and Family Survey, I analyze childbearing decisions up to the third birth using a split-population (SP) model. The advantage of this approach is the separability of the covariates’ impact on birth timing and birth stopping. This paper is the first to apply an SP model to investigate the effect of unemployment and the availability of childcare. I also address how education, family size, age at previous birth of the woman and sex composition of existing children influence childbearing decisions, and provide empirical support for each of these. Comparing these with estimates obtained using survival models that do not include a regression on birth stopping suggest that the results of the latter tend to be unreasonable. Copyright ISEG 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Márton Varga, 2014. "The effect of education, family size, unemployment and childcare availability on birth stopping and timing," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(2), pages 95-115, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:13:y:2014:i:2:p:95-115
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-014-0099-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10258-014-0099-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10258-014-0099-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Unemployment Duration Competing and Defective Risks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
    2. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
    3. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    4. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    5. Pollak, R.A. & Watkins, S.C., 1993. "Cultural and Economic Approaches to Fertility : A Proper Marriage or a Mesalliance?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 93-11, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    6. repec:cai:poeine:pope_504_0415 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Joseph Hotz, V. & Klerman, Jacob Alex & Willis, Robert J., 1993. "The economics of fertility in developed countries," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 275-347, Elsevier.
    8. Gunnar Andersson & Karsten Hank & Andres Vikat, 2007. "Understanding parental gender preferences in advanced societies: Lessons from Sweden and Finland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(6), pages 135-156.
    9. Ronald Rindfuss & David Guilkey & S. Morgan & Øystein Kravdal & Karen Guzzo, 2007. "Child care availability and first-birth timing in Norway," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 345-372, May.
    10. Shirlee Lichtman, 2013. "The Value Of Postponing Pregnancy: California’S Paid Family Leave And The Timing Of Pregnancies," Working Papers 1310, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    11. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    12. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Olivier Thévenon, 2011. "Family Policies in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 57-87, March.
    14. Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(10), pages 263-294.
    15. Edith Gray & Ann Evans & Jon Anderson & Rebecca Kippen, 2010. "Using Split-Population Models to Examine Predictors of the Probability and Timing of Parity Progression," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 275-295, August.
    16. Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
    17. William Axinn & Marin Clarkberg & Arland Thornton, 1994. "Family influences on family size preferences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(1), pages 65-79, February.
    18. Alicia Adsera, 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 189-193, May.
    19. Paul C. Lambert, 2007. "Modeling of the cure fraction in survival studies," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 351-375, September.
    20. Francisco Covas & J.M.C. Santos Silva, 2000. "A modified hurdle model for completed fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 173-188.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrés F. Castro Torres & Emilio Parrado, 2022. "Nativity differentials in first births in the United States: Patterns by race and ethnicity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(2), pages 37-64.
    2. Ewa Cukrowska-Torzewska & Magdalena Grabowska, 2023. "The sex preference for children in Europe: Children’s sex and the probability and timing of births," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(8), pages 203-232.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    2. Kristen Harknett & Francesco Billari & Carla Medalia, 2014. "Do Family Support Environments Influence Fertility? Evidence from 20 European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 1-33, February.
    3. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    4. Anna Matysiak & Dorota Węziak-Białowolska, 2016. "Country-Specific Conditions for Work and Family Reconciliation: An Attempt at Quantification," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 475-510, October.
    5. Jonas Wood & Karel Neels & Jorik Vergauwen, 2016. "Economic and Institutional Context and Second Births in Seven European Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(3), pages 305-325, June.
    6. Joanna Osiñska, 2013. "Postawy wzglêdem euro i ich determinanty– przegl¹d badañ i literatury przedmiotu," Working Papers 70, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics.
    7. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420.
    8. Giammarco Alderotti & Daniele Vignoli & Michela Baccini & Anna Matysiak, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    9. Tien Vu, 2014. "One male offspring preference: evidence from Vietnam using a split-population model," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 689-715, December.
    10. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2014. "Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(23), pages 687-734.
    11. Brian Buh, 2021. "Measuring the Effect of Employment uncertainty on Fertility in Europe (A literature review)," VID Working Papers 2103, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    12. Tatiana Karabchuk, 2020. "Job Instability and Fertility Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: Does Labor Market Legislation Matter?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 688(1), pages 225-245, March.
    13. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Basten, 2012. "Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?," VID Working Papers 1209, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    15. Aksoy, Cevat Giray, 2014. "Are Fertility Responses to Local Unemployment Shocks Homogenous Across Social Strata? Evidence from England, 1994 to 2010," MPRA Paper 58292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    17. Andersen, Signe Hald & Özcan, Berkay, 2021. "The effects of unemployment on fertility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109007, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Alicia Adsera, 2006. "An Economic Analysis of the Gap Between Desired and Actual Fertility: The Case of Spain," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 75-95, March.
    19. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    20. Sebastian Klüsener, 2009. "An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data: a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Split population model; Event history analysis; Parity progression; Birth timing; Portugal; C41; J13; D10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:13:y:2014:i:2:p:95-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.