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Measuring earthquake risk concentration for hazard mitigation

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  • Richard Bernknopf
  • Paul Amos

Abstract

One of the biggest impacts of a disaster is the effect it can have on community and regional housing and the ability of people, communities and regions to recover from the damages. Policy decisions involving investments in loss reduction measures and response and recovery are best informed by the integration of scientific and socioeconomic information. Natural scientists develop hazard scenarios for stakeholders and emergency officials to assess the impacts of a particular disaster outcome. Social scientists have found that housing losses and recovery affect individuals in lower socioeconomic status disproportionately. By combining socioeconomic status data from the US Census with an earthquake scenario for southern California, an event-driven conditional distribution of earthquake risk is used to prioritize investment decisions for earthquake hazard mitigation. Simulation of the damages in the scenario showed a statistically significant risk concentration in census tracts with large numbers of residents of lower socioeconomic status living in multi-family housing and mobile homes. An application of the approach is demonstrated in Los Angeles County as a decision criterion in a building retrofit program. The earthquake scenario was used to evaluate the economic benefits of a program for voluntary mitigation and a combined program of voluntary mitigation and regulated mitigation based on socioeconomic status (mandate requiring mitigation in census tracts meeting specific damage and income thresholds). Although the analysis is a hypothetical scenario based on a simulation of a great earthquake, the results and potential outcomes show that a regulated program with a socioeconomic decision criterion would have significant benefits to vulnerable populations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Bernknopf & Paul Amos, 2014. "Measuring earthquake risk concentration for hazard mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2163-2192, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:3:p:2163-2192
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1299-9
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    1. Ehud Segal & Maya Negev & Eran Feitelson & Danielle Zaychik, 2017. "Devising ‘policy packages’ for seismic retrofitting of residences," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 497-519, October.
    2. Riccardo Privitera & Daniele La Rosa, 2018. "Reducing Seismic Vulnerability and Energy Demand of Cities through Green Infrastructure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Tingting Ji & Hsi-Hsien Wei & Igal M. Shohet & Feng Xiong, 2021. "Risk-based resilience concentration assessment of community to seismic hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1731-1751, September.
    4. Morshedi, Mohamad Ali & Kashani, Hamed, 2022. "Assessment of vulnerability reduction policies: Integration of economic and cognitive models of decision-making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).

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