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Projection of future non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency curves using the pooled CMIP6 climate models

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  • Ameneh Mianabadi

    (Graduate University of Advanced Technology)

  • Mohammad Mehdi Bateni

    (University School for Advanced Studies Pavia)

  • Morteza Babaei

    (University of Tromsø)

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events can cause severe floods that pose significant risks to human lives, properties, and ecosystems. Therefore, understanding how climate change may affect the characteristics of these events is crucial for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, we investigated the effect of climate change on the extreme characteristics through the concept of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves. For this purpose, annual maximum precipitation series derived from five climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 were used to develop the historical (1965–2014) and future (2051–2100) curves for 12 major cities in Iran. By applying the pooling data method, the changes in intensity and frequency of the extreme precipitation with duration of 24-h, 48-h, and 72-h were assessed for three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0. The results indicate that most stations will experience more intense (up to 20%) and frequent (up to 8 times) extreme precipitation events under projected climate change scenarios, especially for the SSP3-7.0 scenario. However, these results varied across cities. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk management in Iran and suggest the need for appropriate adaptive strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ameneh Mianabadi & Mohammad Mehdi Bateni & Morteza Babaei, 2024. "Projection of future non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency curves using the pooled CMIP6 climate models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(15), pages 14311-14332, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:15:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06779-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06779-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    2. M. T. Vu & V. S. Raghavan & S.-Y. Liong, 2017. "Deriving short-duration rainfall IDF curves from a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1877-1891, February.
    3. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    4. E. M. Fischer & R. Knutti, 2016. "Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 986-991, November.
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