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Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA

Author

Listed:
  • Diana R. Gergel

    (University of Washington)

  • Bart Nijssen

    (University of Washington)

  • John T. Abatzoglou

    (University of Idaho)

  • Dennis P. Lettenmaier

    (University of California Los Angeles)

  • Matt R. Stumbaugh

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

We evaluate the implications of ten twenty-first century climate scenarios for snow, soil moisture, and fuel moisture across the conterminous western USA using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. A decline in mountain snowpack, an advance in the timing of spring melt, and a reduction in snow season are projected for five mountain ranges in the region. For the southernmost range (the White Mountains), spring snow at most elevations will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century. We investigate soil and fuel moisture changes for the five mountain ranges and for six lowland regions. The accelerated depletion of mountain snowpack due to warming leads to reduced summer soil moisture across mountain environments. Similarly, warmer and drier summers lead to decreases of up to 25% in dead fuel moisture across all mountain ranges. Collective declines in spring mountain snowpack, summer soil moisture, and fuel moisture across western mountain ranges will increase fire potential in flammability-limited forested systems where fuels are not limiting. Projected changes in fire potential in predominately fuel-limited systems at lower elevations are more uncertain given the confounding signals between projected changes in soil moisture and fuel moisture.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1899-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1899-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E. Stavros & John Abatzoglou & Donald McKenzie & Narasimhan Larkin, 2014. "Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 455-468, October.
    2. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    3. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    4. Philip E Higuera & John T Abatzoglou & Jeremy S Littell & Penelope Morgan, 2015. "The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-21, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rajesh R. Shrestha & Barrie R. Bonsal & James M. Bonnyman & Alex J. Cannon & Mohammad Reza Najafi, 2021. "Heterogeneous snowpack response and snow drought occurrence across river basins of northwestern North America under 1.0°C to 4.0°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Katherine M. Pedersen & Tania M. Busch Isaksen & Marissa G. Baker & Noah Seixas & Nicole A. Errett, 2021. "Climate Change Impacts and Workforce Development Needs in Federal Region X: A Qualitative Study of Occupational Health and Safety Professionals’ Perceptions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-13, February.

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