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Deriving short-duration rainfall IDF curves from a regional climate model

Author

Listed:
  • M. T. Vu

    (National University of Singapore (NUS)
    SMART
    NUS)

  • V. S. Raghavan

    (National University of Singapore (NUS)
    SMART
    NUS)

  • S.-Y. Liong

    (National University of Singapore (NUS)
    Willis Re Inc.
    SMART
    NUS)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the extremes in the climate variables. Being prone to harsh climate impacts, it is very crucial to study extreme rainfall-induced flooding for short durations over regions that are rapidly growing. One way to study the extremes is by the application of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The annual maximum rainfall intensity (AMRI) characteristics are often used to construct these IDF curves that are being used in several infrastructure designs for urban areas. Thus, there is a need to obtain high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall information. Many urban areas of developing countries lack long records of short-duration rainfall. The shortest duration obtained is normally at a daily scale/24 h. Thus, it is very crucial to find a methodology to construct IDF curves for short-duration rainfall (sub-daily) for these urban areas. Vietnam is a developing country with rapidly increasing population as well as urbanization. The fast extension of urban area that does not have adequate preparedness to cope with climate change is certainly a big risk to life and economy. The limitation in studying impacts over many regions of Vietnam is the need for robust and sufficient data, both spatial and temporal. To overcome this limitation, this paper describes constructing IDF curves using 6 hourly rainfall AMRI output from a regional climate model (RCM) that downscaled a global climate model (GCM) output at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The study region is Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam. The sub-daily IDF curves for current and future climate for Hanoi were constructed from 1 to 24 h based on the simple scaling approach. The findings indicate that it is likely that Hanoi might experience more flooding conditions in the future with the AMRI increasing between 34 and 48% for all return periods from 10 to 200 years. The methodology adopted in this paper is suitable for similar ungauged areas elsewhere and will provide useful information in devising adequate planning strategies for drainage designs.

Suggested Citation

  • M. T. Vu & V. S. Raghavan & S.-Y. Liong, 2017. "Deriving short-duration rainfall IDF curves from a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1877-1891, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:85:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2670-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2670-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roshan Srivastav & Andre Schardong & Slobodan Simonovic, 2014. "Equidistance Quantile Matching Method for Updating IDFCurves under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2539-2562, July.
    2. Ida Gregersen & Hjalte Sørup & Henrik Madsen & Dan Rosbjerg & Peter Mikkelsen & Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, 2013. "Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 783-797, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ranjana Ray Chaudhuri & Prateek Sharma, 2020. "Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2307-2324, December.
    2. Meng Lu & Jie Zhang & Qing Lü & Lulu Zhang, 2023. "Assessing the annual probability of rainfall-induced slope failure based on intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 763-778, May.

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