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Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling

Author

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  • Martin Vezér

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    The Pennsylvania State University
    Sustainalytics)

  • Alexander Bakker

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management)

  • Klaus Keller

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    The Pennsylvania State University
    Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Nancy Tuana

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    The Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Vezér & Alexander Bakker & Klaus Keller & Nancy Tuana, 2018. "Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2123-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    2. Carel Eijgenraam, 2006. "Optimal safety standards for dike-ring areas," CPB Discussion Paper 62, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Gregory Garner & Patrick Reed & Klaus Keller, 2016. "Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 713-723, February.
    4. Gregory Garner & Patrick Reed & Klaus Keller, 2016. "Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 713-723, February.
    5. Masozera, Michel & Bailey, Melissa & Kerchner, Charles, 2007. "Distribution of impacts of natural disasters across income groups: A case study of New Orleans," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2-3), pages 299-306, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Casey Helgeson & Robert E. Nicholas & Klaus Keller & Chris E. Forest & Nancy Tuana, 2022. "Attention to values helps shape convergence research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-19, January.

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