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A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures

Author

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  • Kerim Koc

    (Yildiz Technical University)

  • Zeynep Işık

    (Yildiz Technical University)

Abstract

Consequences of urban floods increased and diversified in terms of social, economical and environmental effects, due to the dense and unplanned urbanization in areas at risk of flooding. Reducing the potential damage of flood is one of the most effective and sustainable reduction strategies of flood risks through adopting adequate urban flood risk mitigation measures (UFRM). The main objective of this study is to ascertain urban floods and develop a model identifying UFRM in accordance with their importance in reducing the effects of floods by employing the concept of multi-agent systems. Social, economical and environmental-based agents were modelled in the agent environment to consider the three dimensions of sustainability in the proposed model. Thirteen negotiation strategies were developed for the agents to negotiate with each other. An illustrative case study was then performed to test the proposed model features, and the results were thoroughly analysed. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to specify the most sensitive strategies over the changing fuzziness level of agents. It was observed that the best strategy differs with respect to short-, medium- and long-term gains significantly, which, in turn, lead to alterations in the list of UFRM. This could provide different risk mitigation plans for different regions with their changing resources. In summary, this study provides an innovative multi-agent-based model that can be performed to specify the most urgent UFRM which can be used by disaster coordination and management authorities as a decision-making input.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerim Koc & Zeynep Işık, 2020. "A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 1079-1110, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04205-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04205-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Koc, Kerim & Ekmekcioğlu, Ömer & Işık, Zeynep, 2023. "Developing a probabilistic decision-making model for reinforced sustainable supplier selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    2. Ioannis Kougkoulos & Myriam Merad & Simon J. Cook & Ioannis Andredakis, 2021. "Floods in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and lessons for French flood risk governance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1959-1980, November.
    3. Wenchao Qi & Chao Ma & Hongshi Xu & Zifan Chen & Kai Zhao & Hao Han, 2021. "A review on applications of urban flood models in flood mitigation strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 31-62, August.
    4. Chao Ma & Wenchao Qi & Hongshi Xu & Kai Zhao, 2022. "An integrated quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disaster-inducing factors on causing urban flood," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1903-1924, September.

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