Boosting Sustainable Urban Development: How Smart Cities Improve Emergency Management—Evidence from 275 Chinese Cities

Rapid urbanization and escalating disaster risks necessitate resilient urban governance systems. Smart city initiatives that leverage digital technologies—such as the internet of things (IoT), big data analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI)—demonstrate transformative potential in enhancing emergency management capabilities. However, empirical evidence regarding their causal impact and underlying mechanisms remains limited, particularly in developing economies. Drawing on panel data from 275 Chinese prefecture-level cities over the period 2006–2021 and using China’s smart city pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study applies a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach to rigorously assess the effects of smart city construction on emergency management capabilities. Results reveal that smart city construction produced a statistically significant improvement in emergency management capabilities, which remained robust after conducting multiple sensitivity checks and controlling for potential confounding policies. The benefits exhibit notable heterogeneity: emergency management capability improvements are most pronounced in central China and in cities at the extremes of population size—megacities (>10 million residents) and small cities (<1 million residents)—while effects remain marginal in medium-sized and eastern cities. Crucially, mechanism analysis reveals that digital technology application fully mediates 86.7% of the total effect, whereas factor allocation efficiency exerts only a direct, non-mediating influence. These findings suggest that smart cities primarily enhance emergency management capabilities through digital enablers, with effectiveness contingent upon regional infrastructure development and urban scale. Policy priorities should therefore emphasize investments in digital infrastructure, interagency data integration, and targeted capacity-building strategies tailored to central and western regions as well as smaller cities.