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Research on an Evaluation Model of Urban Seismic Resilience Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Chengdu, China

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  • Xunchang Li

    (Department of Safety Engineering, School of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710000, China)

  • Yifan Liu

    (Department of Safety Engineering, School of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710000, China)

  • Wenyong Zhang

    (China Electric Power Construction Group East China Survey and Design Institute Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310000, China)

  • Yaqian Wang

    (Department of Safety Engineering, School of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710000, China)

Abstract

In response to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in Chengdu, which poses a great threat to the economy, social development, production, and people’s lives, in this study, we construct an index evaluation system and a system dynamics model for urban seismic resilience based on an analysis of the interaction between earthquake disasters and the urban system. Four types of schemes, namely, the current continuity type, economic development type, government intervention type, and resilience construction type, were designed, and the dynamic evaluation and simulation prediction of Chengdu’s seismic resilience capacity under each scheme were conducted. The research results show that, compared with the other three schemes, the resilience construction type has better universality and expansibility in terms of improving Chengdu’s seismic resilience. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain a certain level of economic development, to attach importance to the construction of monitoring and warning systems, and to strive to improve emergency rescue capabilities and disaster awareness education. The model and evaluation indicators have strong applicability, and the research results can provide a theoretical reference for the evaluation of seismic resilience in Chengdu.

Suggested Citation

  • Xunchang Li & Yifan Liu & Wenyong Zhang & Yaqian Wang, 2023. "Research on an Evaluation Model of Urban Seismic Resilience Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Chengdu, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:13:p:10112-:d:1179542
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liu, Wei & Song, Zhaoyang & Ouyang, Min & Li, Jie, 2020. "Recovery-based seismic resilience enhancement strategies of water distribution networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Alexandru Banica & Lucian Rosu & Ionel Muntele & Adrian Grozavu, 2017. "Towards Urban Resilience: A Multi-Criteria Analysis of Seismic Vulnerability in Iasi City (Romania)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liudan Jiao & Bowei Han & Qilin Tan & Yu Zhang & Xiaosen Huo & Liu Wu & Ya Wu, 2024. "An Improved DPSIR-DEA Assessment Model for Urban Resilience: A Case Study of 105 Large Cities in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Ming Guo & Yang Zhou, 2025. "Boosting Sustainable Urban Development: How Smart Cities Improve Emergency Management—Evidence from 275 Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-27, July.

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