IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v77y2015i2p1243-1259.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory

Author

Listed:
  • Chengguang Lai
  • Xiaohong Chen
  • Xiaoyu Chen
  • Zhaoli Wang
  • Xushu Wu
  • Shiwei Zhao

Abstract

As a result of global warming, the occurrences of floods have increased in frequency and severity. Flooding often occurs near rivers and low-lying areas, which makes such areas higher-risk locations. Flood-risk evaluation represents an essential analytic step in preventing floods and reducing losses. However, the uncertainty and nonlinear relation between evaluation indices and risk levels are always difficult points in the evaluation process. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), an effective method for solving random, fuzzy and multi-index problems, has led to progress in understanding this relation. Thus, in this study, an assessment model based on FCE is adopted to evaluate flood risk in the Dongjiang River Basin. To correct the one-sidedness of the single weighting method, a combination weight integrating subjective weight and objective weight is adopted based on game theory. The evaluation results show that high-risk areas are mainly located in regions that include unfavorable terrain, developed industries and dense population. These high-risk areas appropriately coincide with the integrated risk zoning map and inundation areas of historical floods, proving that the evaluation model is feasible and rational. The results also can be used as references for the prevention and reduction of floods and other applications in the Dongjiang River Basin. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Xiaoyu Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Xushu Wu & Shiwei Zhao, 2015. "A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1243-1259, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:1243-1259
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1645-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-015-1645-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-015-1645-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    2. Pardeep Pall & Tolu Aina & Dáithí A. Stone & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa & Arno G. J. Hilberts & Dag Lohmann & Myles R. Allen, 2011. "Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 382-385, February.
    3. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    4. Ju-Liang Jin & Yi-Ming Wei & Le-Le Zou & Li Liu & Juan Fu, 2012. "Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(1), pages 129-139, May.
    5. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    6. Xiao-ling Yang & Jie-hua Ding & Hui Hou, 2013. "Application of a triangular fuzzy AHP approach for flood risk evaluation and response measures analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 657-674, September.
    7. Xinhua Xue & Xingguo Yang, 2014. "Seismic liquefaction potential assessed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2101-2112, April.
    8. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    9. Zhongyi Sun & Jiquan Zhang & Qi Zhang & Yue Hu & Denghua Yan & Chunyi Wang, 2014. "Integrated risk zoning of drought and waterlogging disasters based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in Anhui Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1639-1657, April.
    10. Stefanos Stefanidis & Dimitrios Stathis, 2013. "Assessment of flood hazard based on natural and anthropogenic factors using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 569-585, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Haijun Yu & Xiaoyan Bai, 2020. "Flood Risk Assessment and Regionalization from Past and Future Perspectives at Basin Scale," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1399-1417, July.
    2. Kerim Koc & Zeynep Işık, 2020. "A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 1079-1110, October.
    3. Kadriye Burcu Yavuz Kumlu & Şule Tüdeş, 2019. "Determination of earthquake-risky areas in Yalova City Center (Marmara region, Turkey) using GIS-based multicriteria decision-making techniques (analytical hierarchy process and technique for order pr," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 999-1018, April.
    4. Wei Jian & Shanshan Li & Chengguang Lai & Zhaoli Wang & Xiangju Cheng & Edmond Yat-Man Lo & Tso-Chien Pan, 2021. "Evaluating pluvial flood hazard for highly urbanised cities: a case study of the Pearl River Delta Region in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1691-1719, January.
    5. Moumita Palchaudhuri & Sujata Biswas, 2016. "Application of AHP with GIS in drought risk assessment for Puruliya district, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1905-1920, December.
    6. M. M. Yagoub & Aishah A. Alsereidi & Elfadil A. Mohamed & Punitha Periyasamy & Reem Alameri & Salama Aldarmaki & Yaqein Alhashmi, 2020. "Newspapers as a validation proxy for GIS modeling in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates: identifying flood-prone areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 111-141, October.
    7. Ireneusz Laks & Zbigniew Walczak, 2020. "Efficiency of Polder Modernization for Flood Protection. Case Study of Golina Polder (Poland)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-27, September.
    8. Enliang Guo & Jiquan Zhang & Xuehui Ren & Qi Zhang & Zhongyi Sun, 2014. "Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster based on improved set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy set theory in central Liaoning Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 947-965, November.
    9. V. Srinivasan & G. Shainesh & Anand K. Sharma, 2015. "An approach to prioritize customer-based, cost-effective service enhancements," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(14), pages 747-762, October.
    10. Choudhary, Devendra & Shankar, Ravi, 2012. "An STEEP-fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS framework for evaluation and selection of thermal power plant location: A case study from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 510-521.
    11. Madjid Tavana & Mariya Sodenkamp & Leena Suhl, 2010. "A soft multi-criteria decision analysis model with application to the European Union enlargement," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 393-421, December.
    12. Alpana Agarwal & Divina Raghav, 2023. "Analysing Determinants of Employee Performance Based on Reverse Mentoring and Employer Branding Using Analytic Hierarchical Process," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 48(3), pages 343-358, August.
    13. Wenshuai Wu & Gang Kou, 2016. "A group consensus model for evaluating real estate investment alternatives," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Andre Bender & Allan Din & Philippe Favarger & Martin Hoesli & Janne Laakso, 1997. "An Analysis of Perceptions Concerning the Environmental Quality of Housing in Geneva," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 503-513, March.
    15. Fabio Blanco-Mesa & Anna M. Gil-Lafuente & José M. Merigó, 2018. "Subjective stakeholder dynamics relationships treatment: a methodological approach using fuzzy decision-making," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 441-472, December.
    16. Md Monjurul Islam & Tofael Ahamed & Ryozo Noguchi, 2018. "Land Suitability and Insurance Premiums: A GIS-based Multicriteria Analysis Approach for Sustainable Rice Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-28, May.
    17. Martina Kuncova & Jana Seknickova, 2022. "Two-stage weighted PROMETHEE II with results’ visualization," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 30(2), pages 547-571, June.
    18. Amelia Bilbao-Terol & Mar Arenas-Parra & Raquel Quiroga-García & Celia Bilbao-Terol, 2022. "An extended best–worst multiple reference point method: application in the assessment of non-life insurance companies," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 5323-5362, November.
    19. Shao-Ping Wang & Li-Chun Chen & Miao-Sheng Chen & Mou-Jian Li, 2019. "Purchasing Factors for Travel Insurance by Asian Consumers," International Journal of Human Resource Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 311-329, December.
    20. Hongquan Jiang & Rongxi Wang & Zhiyong Gao & Jianmin Gao & Hongye Wang, 2019. "Classification of weld defects based on the analytical hierarchy process and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 2013-2024, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:1243-1259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.