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The effectiveness of flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social networks—Insights from an agent-based model

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  • Haer, Toon
  • Botzen, W.J. Wouter
  • Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

Abstract

Flood risk management is becoming increasingly important, because more people are settling in flood-prone areas, and flood risk is increasing in many regions due to extreme weather events associated with climate change. It has been proposed that appropriately designed flood risk communication campaigns can stimulate floodplain inhabitants to prepare for flooding, and encourage adaptation to climate change. However, such campaigns do not always result in the desired action, and the effectiveness of communication in raising flood risk awareness and improving flood preparedness has hardly been studied. We evaluate different flood risk communication strategies, using an agent-based modelling approach, which is especially suitable for examining the effect of communication on each individual, and how flood risk communication can propagate through an individual’s social network. Our modelling results show that tailored, people-centred, flood risk communication can be significantly more effective than the common approach of top-down government communication, even when tailored communication reaches fewer individuals. Furthermore, communication on how to protect against floods, in addition to providing information about flood risk, is much more effective than the traditional strategy of communicating only about flood risk. Another main finding is that a person’s social network can have a significant effect on whether or not individuals take protective action. This leads to the recommendation that flood risk communication should aim at exploiting this natural amplifying effect of social networks, for instance, through the use of social media.

Suggested Citation

  • Haer, Toon & Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H., 2016. "The effectiveness of flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social networks—Insights from an agent-based model," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 44-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enscpo:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:44-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.03.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Md Omar Faruk & Keshav Lall Maharjan, 2022. "Impact of Farmers’ Participation in Community-Based Organizations on Adoption of Flood Adaptation Strategies: A Case Study in a Char-Land Area of Sirajganj District Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Philip Bubeck & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Jonas Laudan & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Annegret H. Thieken, 2018. "Insights into Flood‐Coping Appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory: Empirical Evidence from Germany and France," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(6), pages 1239-1257, June.
    3. Richert, Claire & Erdlenbruch, Katrin & Figuières, Charles, 2017. "The determinants of households' flood mitigation decisions in France - on the possibility of feedback effects from past investments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 342-352.
    4. Sarah Ellen Percival & Mark Gaterell & David Hutchinson, 2020. "Effective flood risk visualisation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 375-396, October.
    5. Binh, Phung Thanh & Zhu, Xueqin & Groeneveld, Rolf A. & van Ierland, Ekko C., 2020. "Risk communication, women’s participation and flood mitigation in Vietnam: An experimental study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Jobaed Ragib Zaman & C. Emdad Haque & David Walker, 2022. "Local-Level Flood Hazard Management in Canada: An Assessment of Institutional Structure and Community Engagement in the Red River Valley of Manitoba," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-26, December.
    7. Morshedi, Mohamad Ali & Kashani, Hamed, 2022. "Assessment of vulnerability reduction policies: Integration of economic and cognitive models of decision-making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Jones, Benjamin A., 2023. "Dust storms and human well-being," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Yu Han & Kevin Ash & Liang Mao & Zhong-Ren Peng, 2020. "An agent-based model for community flood adaptation under uncertain sea-level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2257-2276, October.
    10. Kerim Koc & Zeynep Işık, 2020. "A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 1079-1110, October.
    11. Anshuka Anshuka & Floris F. Ogtrop & David Sanderson & Simone Z. Leao, 2022. "A systematic review of agent-based model for flood risk management and assessment using the ODD protocol," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2739-2771, July.
    12. Carolyn A. Lin, 2023. "Flood Risk Management via Risk Communication, Cognitive Appraisal, Collective Efficacy, and Community Action," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-18, September.
    13. Gina Tonn & Seth Guikema & Benjamin Zaitchik, 2020. "Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 884-898, April.
    14. Handi Chandra‐Putra & Clinton J. Andrews, 2020. "An integrated model of real estate market responses to coastal flooding," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 424-435, April.
    15. Crick, Florence & Jenkins, Katie & Surminski, Swenja, 2018. "Strengthening insurance partnerships in the face of climate change: insights from an agent-based model of flood insurance in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87669, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Toon Haer & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Hans de Moel & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2017. "Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent‐Based Model Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1977-1992, October.
    17. Carmen E. Elrick-Barr & Timothy F. Smith, 2022. "Current Information Provision Rarely Helps Coastal Households Adapt to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, March.
    18. Yi Chen & Tao Liu & Ruishan Chen & Mengke Zhao, 2020. "Influence of the Built Environment on Community Flood Resilience: Evidence from Nanjing City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    19. Niamir, Leila & Filatova, Tatiana & Voinov, Alexey & Bressers, Hans, 2018. "Transition to low-carbon economy: Assessing cumulative impacts of individual behavioral changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 325-345.
    20. Christopher A. Freimund & Gregg M. Garfin & Laura M. Norman & Larry A. Fisher & James L. Buizer, 2022. "Flood resilience in paired US–Mexico border cities: a study of binational risk perceptions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1247-1271, June.

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