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Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Author

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  • Chunping Tan

    (Sichuan University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jianping Yang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xiaoming Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Dahe Qin

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Bo Huang

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Hongju Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia), one of main agriculture areas in northwest China, has been severely affected by drought. Based on observed meteorological data, outputs of 20 global climate models and drought disaster data, future climate change and relevant drought hazard in the twenty-first century were projected in Ningxia, with the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5; the risks of people, crop, and agriculture economy to drought disasters are quantitatively assessed, with the application of physical vulnerability curve models, probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo simulation method. It is found that the climate in Ningxia is likely to have a warming and wetting tendency in the twenty-first century. The extent of drought hazard is likely to increase. The increase rate is greater under RCP4.5 than that under RCP2.6. In general, the risks of population, crop, and agriculture to drought disasters are likely to increase in Ningxia in the twenty-first century. The magnitude of increase is likely to reach the greatest in the immediate term (2016–2035), followed by the increase in the medium term (2046–2065), and the long term (2081–2100). In comparison with RCP2.6, the drought disaster risks under the scenario of RCP4.5 are likely to increase further in three periods of the twenty-first century. The findings of this work have potential to provide data support for drought disaster risk management and support risk-based decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunping Tan & Jianping Yang & Xiaoming Wang & Dahe Qin & Bo Huang & Hongju Chen, 2020. "Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(3), pages 909-931, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03811-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03811-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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