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Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa

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  • Moses A. Ojara

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    Uganda National Meteorological Authority)

  • Yunsheng Lou

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Lawrence Aribo

    (Uganda National Meteorological Authority)

  • Silvia Namumbya

    (Uganda National Meteorological Authority)

  • Md. Jalal Uddin

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

Abstract

The economy of Uganda depends heavily on rainfed agriculture. In this study, daily observed rainfall datasets from 9 weather stations with length varying within 1955 and 2017 were used to generate the probability of rainfall and dry spells occurrence using a Markov chain approach. The length of the maximum dry spell was obtained using the direct method based on the definition of a dry day that rainfall is less than 0.85 mm (R

Suggested Citation

  • Moses A. Ojara & Yunsheng Lou & Lawrence Aribo & Silvia Namumbya & Md. Jalal Uddin, 2020. "Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 493-514, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03822-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03822-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rockstr m, J. & Barron, J. & Fox, P., 2003. "Water productivity in rain-fed agriculture: challenges and opportunities for smallholder farmers in drought-prone tropical agroecosystems," IWMI Books, Reports H032640, International Water Management Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moses A. Ojara & Lou Yunsheng & Hassen Babaousmail & Peter Wasswa, 2021. "Trends and zonal variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa during 1960–2017," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 33-61, October.
    2. Lamek Nahayo & Cui Peng & Yu Lei & Rongzhi Tan, 2023. "Spatial understanding of historical and future landslide variation in Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 613-641, October.
    3. Zekai Şen & Eyüp Şişman & Ismail Dabanli, 2020. "Wet and dry spell feature charts for practical uses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 1975-1986, December.

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