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The role of rainfed agriculture in securing food production in the Nile Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Siderius, C.
  • Van Walsum, P.E.V.
  • Roest, C.W.J.
  • Smit, A.A.M.F.R.
  • Hellegers, P.J.G.J.
  • Kabat, P.
  • Van Ierland, E.C.

Abstract

A better use of land and water resources will be necessary to meet the increasing demand for food in the Nile basin. Using a hydro-economic model along the storyline of three future political cooperation scenarios, we show that the future of food production in the Basin lies not in the expansion of intensively irrigated areas and the disputed reallocation of water, but in utilizing the vast forgotten potential of rainfed agriculture in the upstream interior, with supplemental irrigation where needed. Our results indicate that rainfed agriculture can cover more than 75% of the needed increase in food production by the year 2025. Many of the most suitable regions for rainfed agriculture in the Nile basin, however, have been destabilized by recent war and civil unrest. Stabilizing those regions and strengthening intra-basin cooperation via food trade seem to be better strategies than unilateral expansion of upstream irrigation, as the latter will reduce hydropower generation and relocate, rather than increase, food production.

Suggested Citation

  • Siderius, C. & Van Walsum, P.E.V. & Roest, C.W.J. & Smit, A.A.M.F.R. & Hellegers, P.J.G.J. & Kabat, P. & Van Ierland, E.C., 2016. "The role of rainfed agriculture in securing food production in the Nile Basin," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 14-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enscpo:v:61:y:2016:i:c:p:14-23
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.03.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Siderius, C. & Biemans, H. & Kashaigili, J. & Conway, D., 2022. "Water conservation can reduce future water-energy-food-environment trade-offs in a medium-sized African river basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    2. Moses A. Ojara & Yunsheng Lou & Lawrence Aribo & Silvia Namumbya & Md. Jalal Uddin, 2020. "Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 493-514, January.

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