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Valuing deaths or years of life lost? Economic benefits of avoided mortality from early heat warning systems

Author

Listed:
  • Aline Chiabai

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change BC3)

  • Joseph V. Spadaro

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change BC3
    SERC)

  • Marc B. Neumann

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change BC3
    IKERBASQUE, Basque Foundation for Science)

Abstract

The study aims to explore the main drivers influencing the economic appraisal of heat warning systems by integrating epidemiological modelling and benefit-cost analysis. To shed insights on heat wave mortality valuation, we consider three valuation schemes: (i) a traditional one, where the value of a statistical life (VSL) is applied to both displaced and premature mortality; (ii) an intermediate one, with VSL applied for premature mortality and value of a life year (VOLY) for displaced mortality; and (iii) a conservative one, where both premature and displaced mortality are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy, and then valued using the VOLY approach. When applying these three schemes to Madrid (Spain), we obtain a benefit-cost ratio varying from 12 to 3700. We find that the choice of the valuation scheme has the largest influence, whereas other parameters such as attributable risk, displaced mortality ratio, or the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of the heat warning system are less influential. The results raise the question of which is the most appropriate approach to value mortality in the context of heat waves, given that the lower bound estimate for the benefit-cost ratio (option iii using VOLY) is up to two orders of magnitude lower than the value based on the traditional VSL approach (option i). The choice of the valuation methodology has significant implications for public health authorities at the local and regional scale, which becomes highly relevant for locations where the application of the VOLY approach could lead to benefit-cost ratios significantly lower than 1. We propose that specific metrics for premature and displaced VOLYs should be developed for the context of heat waves. Until such values are available, we suggest testing the economic viability of heat warning systems under the three proposed valuation schemes (i–iii) and using values for VOLY commonly applied in air pollution as the health end points are similar. Lastly, periodical reassessment of heat alert plans should be performed by public health authorities to monitor their long-term viability and cost-effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Aline Chiabai & Joseph V. Spadaro & Marc B. Neumann, 2018. "Valuing deaths or years of life lost? Economic benefits of avoided mortality from early heat warning systems," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1159-1176, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:7:d:10.1007_s11027-017-9778-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9778-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    2. Henrik Lindhjem & Ståle Navrud & Nils Axel Braathen & Vincent Biausque, 2011. "Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions from Environmental, Transport, and Health Policies: A Global Meta‐Analysis of Stated Preference Studies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1381-1407, September.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcello Iriti & Prisco Piscitelli & Eduardo Missoni & Alessandro Miani, 2020. "Air Pollution and Health: The Need for a Medical Reading of Environmental Monitoring Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-6, March.
    2. Kerstin Pfeifer & Daniel Oudin Åström & Žanna Martinsone & Darja Kaļužnaja & Anna Oudin, 2020. "Evaluating Mortality Response Associated with Two Different Nordic Heat Warning Systems in Riga, Latvia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-10, October.
    3. Lucie Adélaïde & Olivier Chanel & Mathilde Pascal, 2022. "Health effects from heat waves in France: an economic evaluation," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(1), pages 119-131, February.
    4. Prisco Piscitelli & Barbara Valenzano & Emanuele Rizzo & Giuseppe Maggiotto & Matteo Rivezzi & Felice Esposito Corcione & Alessandro Miani, 2019. "Air Pollution and Estimated Health Costs Related to Road Transportations of Goods in Italy: A First Healthcare Burden Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-11, August.

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