Understanding fertility policy through a process-oriented approach: the case of Japan’s decline in births

This article examines Japan’s policymaking capacities necessary to address the issue of low fertility, while harnessing the process-oriented theories of policy studies. The author asks why Japan’s policy to increase fertility has not worked as well as some other countries whose efforts have proven more successful. The focus of this study is on process-oriented capacities, which can be defined as an ability of actors involved to avoid conflicts and cooperate on solutions at each stage of the policy cycle. To explore these capacities, or the preconditions for enabling policy options available for the actors, the policy process is investigated using process tracing observations for causal inferences drawing on governmental data, insights from policymakers, comprehensive literature reviews, and pertinent news reports. The author contends that the involvement of broker-entrepreneurs, who recognize opportunities and navigate obstacles, plays a pivotal role in preventing conflicts among stakeholders. Nevertheless, empirical data indicates that merely sidestepping conflicts does not necessarily enable policy effectiveness.