IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ieaple/v22y2022i3d10.1007_s10784-022-09573-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population growth, family planning and the Paris Agreement: an assessment of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs)

Author

Listed:
  • Jenna Dodson

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Patricia Dérer

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Philip Cafaro

    (Colorado State University)

  • Frank Götmark

    (University of Gothenburg)

Abstract

Under the Paris Agreement, nations made pledges known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs): national climate plans detailing countries’ ambitions to adapt to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Population growth is a driver of both climate vulnerability and climate-altering emissions. We asked, to what extent do countries take population growth into account in their NDCs, beyond simple statements of population trends? Our research method was a comprehensive text review of 164 NDCs submitted by countries. About one-third (49) of countries’ NDCs either link population growth to a negative effect and/or identify population growth as a challenge or trend affecting societal needs. Common impacts of population growth noted were increased energy demand, natural resource degradation, vulnerability to climate impacts, and decreased food and water security. Seven NDCs included strategies to slow population growth, and none specified implementation measures. Overall, the adaptation potential and mitigation co-benefits associated with slowing population growth through meeting the unmet need for family planning are largely overlooked in national NDC documents, suggesting that they are also neglected in countries’ climate change planning. In upcoming rounds of NDC updates, we recommend that governments consider the potential impact of population growth on adaptation and mitigation efforts, prioritize meeting their unmet needs for family planning, and integrate population-health-environment projects in their national climate plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenna Dodson & Patricia Dérer & Philip Cafaro & Frank Götmark, 2022. "Population growth, family planning and the Paris Agreement: an assessment of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs)," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 561-576, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ieaple:v:22:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10784-022-09573-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10784-022-09573-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10784-022-09573-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10784-022-09573-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yann Robiou du Pont & Malte Meinshausen, 2018. "Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Megan Mills‐Novoa & Diana M. Liverman, 2019. "Nationally Determined Contributions: Material climate commitments and discursive positioning in the NDCs," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(5), September.
    3. Niklas Höhne & Hanna Fekete & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Andries F. Hof & Takeshi Kuramochi, 2018. "Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 425-441, April.
    4. Bryan Jones & Brian C. O’Neill & Larry McDaniel & Seth McGinnis & Linda O. Mearns & Claudia Tebaldi, 2015. "Future population exposure to US heat extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 652-655, July.
    5. P. Gallo & E. Albrecht, 2019. "Brazil and the Paris Agreement: REDD+ as an instrument of Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution compliance," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 123-144, February.
    6. Salvi Asefi-Najafabady & Karen L Vandecar & Anton Seimon & Peter Lawrence & Deborah Lawrence, 2018. "Climate change, population, and poverty: vulnerability and exposure to heat stress in countries bordering the Great Lakes of Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 561-573, June.
    7. Natalya D. Gallo & David G. Victor & Lisa A. Levin, 2017. "Ocean commitments under the Paris Agreement," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(11), pages 833-838, November.
    8. Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
    9. Oleg Smirnov & Minghua Zhang & Tingyin Xiao & John Orbell & Amy Lobben & Josef Gordon, 2016. "The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 41-53, September.
    10. Justin Leinaweaver & Robert Thomson, 2021. "The Elusive Governance of Climate Change: Nationally Determined Contributions as Commitments and Negotiating Positions," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 21(2), pages 73-98, Spring.
    11. John Bongaarts, 2016. "Development: Slow down population growth," Nature, Nature, vol. 530(7591), pages 409-412, February.
    12. Pieter Pauw & Kennedy Mbeva & Harro Asselt, 2019. "Subtle differentiation of countries’ responsibilities under the Paris Agreement," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank Götmark & Malte Andersson, 2023. "Achieving sustainable population: Fertility decline in many developing countries follows modern contraception, not economic growth," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1606-1617, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ceecee Holz & Guy Cunliffe & Kennedy Mbeva & Pieter W. Pauw & Harald Winkler, 2023. "Tempering and enabling ambition: how equity is considered in domestic processes preparing NDCs," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, September.
    2. Sri Hasnawati & Mustofa Usman & Ahmad Faisol & Faiz A. M. Elfaki, 2023. "Analysis and Modeling Gross Domestic Product, Carbon Dioxide Emission, Population Growth, and Life Expectancy at Birth: Case Study in Qatar," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 467-483, March.
    3. Elisabeth Tschumi & Jakob Zscheischler, 2020. "Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 593-609, February.
    4. Meryl Jagarnath & Tirusha Thambiran & Michael Gebreslasie, 2020. "Heat stress risk and vulnerability under climate change in Durban metropolitan, South Africa—identifying urban planning priorities for adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 807-829, November.
    5. Juan Antonio Duro & Jordi Teixidó-Figueras & Emilio Padilla, 2017. "The Causal Factors of International Inequality in $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions Per Capita: A Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 683-700, August.
    6. Salman, Muhammad & Long, Xingle & Wang, Guimei & Zha, Donglan, 2022. "Paris climate agreement and global environmental efficiency: New evidence from fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Michael Mugarura & Wolfgang Stümer & Karsten Dunger & Andreas Bolte & Matt Ramlow & Emmanuel Ackom & Steffi Röhling, 2021. "Ascription of the differences between Germany and Uganda’s Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry sector greenhouse gas methodologies for inventory improvement," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(6), pages 1-30, August.
    8. Kauder, Björn & Potrafke, Niklas & Ursprung, Heinrich, 2018. "Behavioral determinants of proclaimed support for environment protection policies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-41.
    9. Luisetti, Tiziana & Turner, R. Kerry & Andrews, Julian E. & Jickells, Timothy D. & Kröger, Silke & Diesing, Markus & Paltriguera, Lucille & Johnson, Martin T. & Parker, Eleanor R. & Bakker, Dorothee C, 2019. "Quantifying and valuing carbon flows and stores in coastal and shelf ecosystems in the UK," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 67-76.
    10. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Kouvaritakis, Nikos, 2018. "Model-based analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2 °C pathways for major economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 965-978.
    11. Masood S. Alivand & Omid Mazaheri & Yue Wu & Ali Zavabeti & Andrew J. Christofferson & Nastaran Meftahi & Salvy P. Russo & Geoffrey W. Stevens & Colin A. Scholes & Kathryn A. Mumford, 2022. "Engineered assembly of water-dispersible nanocatalysts enables low-cost and green CO2 capture," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Yuqing Zhang & Guangxiong Mao & Changchun Chen & Liucheng Shen & Binyu Xiao, 2021. "Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    13. Ulrike Will, 2020. "The Specification of Rules of Differentiation in the NDCs to the Paris Agreement," Discussion Paper Series RECAP15 31, RECAP15, European University Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder).
    14. Tatjana Stankovic & Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2023. "The Paris Agreement’s inherent tension between ambition and compliance," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-6, December.
    15. Xin, Baogui & Zhang, Tengda & Santibanez-Gonzalez, Ernesto D.R., 2024. "Synergistic effects of regional environmental governance on alleviating energy poverty and promoting household decarbonization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    16. J. Joseph Speidel & Jane N. O’Sullivan, 2023. "Advancing the Welfare of People and the Planet with a Common Agenda for Reproductive Justice, Population, and the Environment," World, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-29, May.
    17. Underwood, Anthony & Zahran, Sammy, 2015. "The carbon implications of declining household scale economies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 182-190.
    18. Orkun Davutluoğlu & Abdurrahman Yavuzdeğer & Burak Esenboğa & Özge Demirdelen & Kübra Tümay Ateş & Tuğçe Demirdelen, 2024. "Carbon Emission Analysis and Reporting in Urban Emissions: An Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Inventories and Climate Action Plans in Sarıçam Municipality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-15, May.
    19. Kyle S. Herman, 2024. "Doomed to fail? A call to reform global climate governance and greenhouse gas inventories," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 257-288, September.
    20. Salvi Asefi-Najafabady & Karen L Vandecar & Anton Seimon & Peter Lawrence & Deborah Lawrence, 2018. "Climate change, population, and poverty: vulnerability and exposure to heat stress in countries bordering the Great Lakes of Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 561-573, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ieaple:v:22:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10784-022-09573-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.