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Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges

Author

Listed:
  • Yann Robiou du Pont

    (University of Melbourne, Parkville)

  • Malte Meinshausen

    (University of Melbourne, Parkville
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg)

Abstract

Under the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, countries pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Current NDCs individually align, at best, with divergent concepts of equity and are collectively inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. We show that the global 2030-emissions of NDCs match the sum of each country adopting the least-stringent of five effort-sharing allocations of a well-below 2 °C-scenario. Extending such a self-interested bottom-up aggregation of equity might lead to a median 2100-warming of 2.3 °C. Tightening the warming goal of each country’s effort-sharing approach to aspirational levels of 1.1 °C and 1.3 °C could achieve the 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C-thresholds, respectively. This new hybrid allocation reconciles the bottom-up nature of the Paris Agreement with its top-down warming thresholds and provides a temperature metric to assess NDCs. When taken as benchmark by other countries, the NDCs of India, the EU, the USA and China lead to 2.6 °C, 3.2 °C, 4 °C and over 5.1 °C warmings, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Yann Robiou du Pont & Malte Meinshausen, 2018. "Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-07223-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07223-9
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    1. Olga Alcaraz & Bàrbara Sureda & Albert Turon & Cindy Ramírez & Marta Gebellí, 2021. "Equitable mitigation to achieve the 1.5 °C goal in the Mediterranean Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Karl W. Steininger & Keith Williges & Lukas H. Meyer & Florian Maczek & Keywan Riahi, 2022. "Sharing the effort of the European Green Deal among countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Ceecee Holz & Guy Cunliffe & Kennedy Mbeva & Pieter W. Pauw & Harald Winkler, 2023. "Tempering and enabling ambition: how equity is considered in domestic processes preparing NDCs," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, September.
    4. Gilang Hardadi & Alexander Buchholz & Stefan Pauliuk, 2021. "Implications of the distribution of German household environmental footprints across income groups for integrating environmental and social policy design," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(1), pages 95-113, February.
    5. Paul Terhemba Iorember & Solomon Gbaka & Gylych Jelilov & Nargiza Alymkulova & Ojonugwa Usman, 2022. "Impact of international trade, energy consumption and income on environmental degradation in Africa's OPEC member countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(2), pages 175-187, June.
    6. Jenna Dodson & Patricia Dérer & Philip Cafaro & Frank Götmark, 2022. "Population growth, family planning and the Paris Agreement: an assessment of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs)," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 561-576, September.
    7. Biying Yu & Zihao Zhao & Yi-Ming Wei & Lan-Cui Liu & Qingyu Zhao & Shuo Xu & Jia-Ning Kang & Hua Liao, 2023. "Approaching national climate targets in China considering the challenge of regional inequality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. João Camargo & Iñaki Barcena & Pedro M. Soares & Luísa Schmidt & Javier Andaluz, 2020. "Mind the climate policy gaps: climate change public policy and reality in Portugal, Spain and Morocco," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 151-169, July.
    9. Tatjana Stankovic & Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2023. "The Paris Agreement’s inherent tension between ambition and compliance," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-6, December.
    10. Jose Rafael Núñez Collado & Han-Hsiang Wang & Tsung-Yi Tsai, 2019. "Urban Informality in the Paris Climate Agreement: Content Analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions of Highly Urbanized Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Elie, Luc & Granier, Caroline & Rigot, Sandra, 2021. "The different types of renewable energy finance: A Bibliometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Chen, Hao & Qi, Shaozhou & Zhang, Jihong, 2022. "Towards carbon neutrality with Chinese characteristics: From an integrated perspective of economic growth-equity-environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    13. Burke, Paul J. & Beck, Fiona J. & Aisbett, Emma & Baldwin, Kenneth G.H. & Stocks, Matthew & Pye, John & Venkataraman, Mahesh & Hunt, Janet & Bai, Xuemei, 2022. "Contributing to regional decarbonization: Australia's potential to supply zero-carbon commodities to the Asia-Pacific," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    14. Robert B. Zougmoré & Peter Läderach & Bruce M. Campbell, 2021. "Transforming Food Systems in Africa under Climate Change Pressure: Role of Climate-Smart Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    15. Yu Liu & Mingxi Du & Qi Cui & Jintai Lin & Yawen Liu & Qiuyu Liu & Dan Tong & Kuishuang Feng & Klaus Hubacek, 2022. "Contrasting suitability and ambition in regional carbon mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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