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The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts

Author

Listed:
  • Oleg Smirnov

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Minghua Zhang

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Tingyin Xiao

    (Stony Brook University)

  • John Orbell

    (University of Oregon)

  • Amy Lobben

    (University of Oregon)

  • Josef Gordon

    (University of Oregon)

Abstract

The human consequences of drought are normally addressed in terms of “water scarcity” originating from human water use. In these terms, a common prediction to the next few decades is that population growth, not climate change, will be the dominant factor determining numbers living under such scarcity. Here we address the relative importance of increasing human caused extreme drought and increasing population for numbers of humans likely to be directly exposed in the future to such drought. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in conjunction with an ensemble of 16 CMIP5 climate models we find that, by 2081-2100 under the high emissions scenario RCP 8.5, average worldwide monthly population exposed to extreme drought (SPEI

Suggested Citation

  • Oleg Smirnov & Minghua Zhang & Tingyin Xiao & John Orbell & Amy Lobben & Josef Gordon, 2016. "The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 41-53, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1716-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1716-z
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    1. Jieming Chou & Tian Xian & Runze Zhao & Yuan Xu & Fan Yang & Mingyang Sun, 2019. "Drought Risk Assessment and Estimation in Vulnerable Eco-Regions of China: Under the Background of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Ruiwen Zhang & Chengyi Zhao & Xiaofei Ma & Karthikeyan Brindha & Qifei Han & Chaofan Li & Xiaoning Zhao, 2019. "Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Jenna Dodson & Patricia Dérer & Philip Cafaro & Frank Götmark, 2022. "Population growth, family planning and the Paris Agreement: an assessment of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs)," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 561-576, September.
    4. Emre Topçu, 2022. "Appraisal of seasonal drought characteristics in Turkey during 1925–2016 with the standardized precipitation index and copula approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 697-723, May.
    5. Gauranshi Raj Singh & Manoj Kumar Jain & Vivek Gupta, 2019. "Spatiotemporal assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in the Krishna River basin, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 611-635, November.
    6. Brian C. Thiede & Sara Ronnkvist & Anna Armao & Katrina Burka, 2022. "Climate anomalies and birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Elisabeth Tschumi & Jakob Zscheischler, 2020. "Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 593-609, February.
    8. Bin Tang & Wenting Hu, 2022. "Significant Increase in Population Exposure to Extreme Precipitation in South China and Indochina in the Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, May.
    9. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun, 2019. "Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related events in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1197-1213, December.
    10. Rachel Warren & Oliver Andrews & Sally Brown & Felipe J. Colón-González & Nicole Forstenhäusler & David E. H. J. Gernaat & P. Goodwin & Ian Harris & Yi He & Chris Hope & Desmond Manful & Timothy J. Os, 2022. "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-16, June.

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