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Electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle estimation in Malaysia 2040

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Azmi

    (Osaka University)

  • Akihiro Tokai

    (Osaka University)

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the number of electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) as well as end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) generated until 2040. A system dynamics modelling method was used with integrated population expandable income and vehicle price reduction, simulated through alternative policy application scenarios. It is estimated that passenger vehicle market will be nearing saturation point in 2030 at 12 million active vehicles, while half a million ELVs are also projected to be generated in that year. In 2040, HEV is estimated to be 1.43 million units, while EV is estimated to be 43,000 units. This research also concludes that by reducing vehicle ownership tax, adapting mandatory inspection and improving emission regulation, HEV and EV can be increased by an additional 70%. The result from this study is expected to assist future research in future transportation-related pollution estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Azmi & Akihiro Tokai, 2017. "Electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle estimation in Malaysia 2040," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 451-464, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:37:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10669-017-9647-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-017-9647-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zachary A. Collier & James H. Lambert & Igor Linkov, 2017. "Global perspectives and case studies of environmental management and policy," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 379-380, December.
    2. Muhammad Iskandar Hamzah & Nurul Syafiqah Tanwir & Siti Norida Wahab & Muhammad Hafiz Abd Rashid, 2022. "Consumer perceptions of hybrid electric vehicle adoption and the green automotive market: the Malaysian evidence," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 1827-1851, February.
    3. T. V. Krishna Mohan & R. K. Amit, 2020. "Dismantlers’ dilemma in end-of-life vehicle recycling markets: a system dynamics model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 290(1), pages 591-619, July.
    4. Yang Li & Kiyoshi Fujikawa & Junbo Wang & Xin Li & Yiyi Ju & Chenyi Chen, 2020. "The Potential and Trend of End-Of-Life Passenger Vehicles Recycling in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, February.
    5. Nur Ayeesha Qisteena Muzir & Md. Rayid Hasan Mojumder & Md. Hasanuzzaman & Jeyraj Selvaraj, 2022. "Challenges of Electric Vehicles and Their Prospects in Malaysia: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-40, July.
    6. Gorji, Mohammad-Ali & Shetab-Boushehri, Seyyed-Nader & Akbarzadeh, Meisam, 2023. "Evaluation and improvement of the resilience of a transportation system against epidemic diseases: A system dynamics approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 27-44.
    7. Fatin Amrina A. Rashid & Hawa Hishamuddin & Nizaroyani Saibani & Mohd Radzi Abu Mansor & Zambri Harun, 2022. "A Review of Supply Chain Uncertainty Management in the End-of-Life Vehicle Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-28, October.

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