Rural financial development and achieving an agricultural carbon emissions peak: an empirical analysis of Henan Province, China

Few studies have investigated agricultural carbon emissions peaks, especially from the financial development perspective. This study focuses on the effects of financial scale and efficiency to achieve an agricultural carbon emissions peak in China’s Henan Province. Using an extended STIRPAT model and scenario analysis, we find: (1) with the inverted U-shaped influence mechanism of rural financial scale and incorporating rural financial efficiency, agricultural carbon emissions in Henan will peak at 14.17 million tons in 2040, 12.50 million tons in 2034, and 11.73 million tons in 2023 under the baseline low-carbon, moderately accelerated low-carbon, and stringent low-carbon development scenarios; (2) without financial efficiency improvements, carbon emissions will peak five years, three years, and six years later, and the peak value will increase 0.97 million tons, 0.65 million tons, and 0.30 million tons. Therefore, agricultural carbon emissions will peak earlier with continuous and strong financial policy adjustment to facilitate financial development. We also find that agricultural carbon absorption exceeds emissions, achieving carbon neutrality. The policy implication is that financial development matters to sustainable agricultural development. Developing countries could learn from the financial development experience (i.e., gradual financial reform and a stable financial environment) in Henan and China in general.