IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/compst/v39y2024i1d10.1007_s00180-022-01301-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fair evaluation of classifier predictive performance based on binary confusion matrix

Author

Listed:
  • Amalia Vanacore

    (University of Naples Federico II)

  • Maria Sole Pellegrino

    (University of Naples Federico II)

  • Armando Ciardiello

    (University of Naples Federico II)

Abstract

Evaluating the ability of a classifier to make predictions on unseen data and increasing it by tweaking the learning algorithm are two of the main reasons motivating the evaluation of classifier predictive performance. In this study the behavior of Balanced $$AC_1$$ A C 1 — a novel classifier accuracy measure — is investigated under different class imbalance conditions via a Monte Carlo simulation. The behavior of Balanced $$AC_1$$ A C 1 is compared against that of several well-known performance measures based on binary confusion matrix. Study results reveal the suitability of Balanced $$AC_1$$ A C 1 with both balanced and imbalanced data sets. A real example of the effects of class imbalance on the behavior of the investigated classifier performance measures is provided by comparing the performance of several machine learning algorithms in a churn prediction problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Amalia Vanacore & Maria Sole Pellegrino & Armando Ciardiello, 2024. "Fair evaluation of classifier predictive performance based on binary confusion matrix," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 363-383, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:39:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00180-022-01301-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-022-01301-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00180-022-01301-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00180-022-01301-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K.W. de Bock & D. van den Poel, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of rotation-based ensemble classifiers for customer churn prediction," Post-Print hal-00800160, HAL.
    2. K. Coussement & D. Van Den Poel, 2006. "Churn Prediction in Subscription Services: an Application of Support Vector Machines While Comparing Two Parameter-Selection Techniques," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/412, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Azeem & Muhammad Usman & A. C. M. Fong, 2017. "A churn prediction model for prepaid customers in telecom using fuzzy classifiers," Telecommunication Systems: Modelling, Analysis, Design and Management, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 603-614, December.
    2. Matthias Bogaert & Lex Delaere, 2023. "Ensemble Methods in Customer Churn Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of the State-of-the-Art," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-28, February.
    3. Arno Caigny & Kristof Coussement & Matthijs Meire & Steven Hoornaert, 2025. "Investigating the impact of undersampling and bagging: an empirical investigation for customer attrition modeling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 346(3), pages 2401-2421, March.
    4. K. W. De Bock & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Reconciling Performance and Interpretability in Customer Churn Prediction using Ensemble Learning based on Generalized Additive Models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/805, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Ballings, Michel & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2015. "CRM in social media: Predicting increases in Facebook usage frequency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 248-260.
    6. Schaeffer, Satu Elisa & Rodriguez Sanchez, Sara Veronica, 2020. "Forecasting client retention — A machine-learning approach," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Risselada, Hans & Verhoef, Peter C. & Bijmolt, Tammo H.A., 2010. "Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 198-208.
    8. Chou, Ping & Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun & Chou, Yen-Chun & Liang, Ting-Peng, 2022. "Predictive analytics for customer repurchase: Interdisciplinary integration of buy till you die modeling and machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 635-651.
    9. Eva Ascarza & Oded Netzer & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2018. "Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 54-77, January.
    10. Baumann, Elias & Kern, Jana & Lessmann, Stefan, 2019. "Usage Continuance in Software-as-a-Service," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-005, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    11. Yen-Chun Chou & Howard Hao-Chun Chuang, 2018. "A predictive investigation of first-time customer retention in online reservation services," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 12(4), pages 685-699, December.
    12. Koen W. de Bock & Arno de Caigny, 2021. "Spline-rule ensemble classifiers with structured sparsity regularization for interpretable customer churn modeling," Post-Print hal-03391564, HAL.
    13. Blaser, Rico & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2016. "Random rotation ensembles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62182, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Yookyung Boo & Youngjin Choi, 2021. "Comparison of Prediction Models for Mortality Related to Injuries from Road Traffic Accidents after Correcting for Undersampling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-14, May.
    15. Slãvescu Ecaterina Oana & Panait Iulian, 2012. "Improving Customer Churn Models as one of Customer Relationship Management Business Solutions for the Telecommunication Industry," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 1156-1160, May.
    16. De Caigny, Arno & Coussement, Kristof & De Bock, Koen W., 2018. "A new hybrid classification algorithm for customer churn prediction based on logistic regression and decision trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 760-772.
    17. Arno de Caigny & Kristof Coussement & Koen W. de Bock & Stefan Lessmann, 2019. "Incorporating textual information in customer churn prediction models based on a convolutional neural network," Post-Print hal-02275958, HAL.
    18. Albrecht, Tobias & Rausch, Theresa Maria & Derra, Nicholas Daniel, 2021. "Call me maybe: Methods and practical implementation of artificial intelligence in call center arrivals’ forecasting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 267-278.
    19. Pedro Sobreiro & Pedro Guedes-Carvalho & Abel Santos & Paulo Pinheiro & Celina Gonçalves, 2021. "Predicting Fitness Centre Dropout," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-11, October.
    20. Elias Baumann & Jana Kern & Stefan Lessmann, 2022. "Usage Continuance in Software-as-a-Service," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 149-176, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:39:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00180-022-01301-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.