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Adaptation and the Guardrail Approach to Tolerable Climate Change

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  • Gary Yohe
  • Ferenc Toth

Abstract

Windows delineating tolerable or "acceptable" conditions associated with climate change can be defined in terms of a variety of parameters; a preliminary window offered by the Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change of the Federal Government of Germany sets limits on temperature change and the rate of temperature change. Investment in adaptation can alter the size and shape of these windows, and different emissions trajectories are associated with different limiting points on their boundaries. As a result, the value of adaptation depends upon both the underlying structure of the tolerable window and the basecase emissions trajectory. Given uncertainty about both, the best near-term policy should be cast in a sequential decision-making framework. Seen in this light, improved adaptive potential can either reduce the cost of sustaining tolerable climate change or increase the opportunity cost of holding to more restrictive boundaries. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Yohe & Ferenc Toth, 2000. "Adaptation and the Guardrail Approach to Tolerable Climate Change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 103-128, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:45:y:2000:i:1:p:103-128
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005693001585
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Reilly & David Schimmelpfennig, 2000. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Learning: Portraits of Adaptation to Long-Term Climate Change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 253-278, April.
    2. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yujin Jeong & Hyejin Jang & Byungun Yoon, 2021. "Developing a risk-adaptive technology roadmap using a Bayesian network and topic modeling under deep uncertainty," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 3697-3722, May.
    2. Sally Kane & Jason Shogren, 2000. "Linking Adaptation and Mitigation in Climate Change Policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 75-102, April.
    3. Roger Jones & Paul Dettmann & Geoff Park & Maureen Rogers & Terry White, 2007. "The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: a regional response from North Central Victoria, Australia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 685-712, June.

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