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Assessing climate change impacts on California hydropower generation and ancillary services provision

Author

Listed:
  • Kate Forrest

    (University of California Irvine
    University of California Irvine)

  • Brian Tarroja

    (University of California Irvine
    University of California Irvine)

  • Felicia Chiang

    (University of California Irvine)

  • Amir AghaKouchak

    (University of California Irvine
    University of California Irvine)

  • Scott Samuelsen

    (University of California Irvine
    University of California Irvine
    University of California Irvine)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to significantly reshape hydropower generation in California. However, the impact on the ability of hydropower to provide reserve capacity that can provide on-demand, back-up electricity generation to stabilize the grid in the case of a contingency has not been explored. This study examined the impact of climate change-driven hydrologic shifts on hydropower contributions to generation and ancillary services. We used projections from four climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to evaluate the impact of climate change conditions, comparing the future period 2046–2055 to the baseline 2000–2009, and observed a net increase of inflow into large hydropower units in northern California. However, as extreme events yield greater spillage, increased overall inflow did not necessarily yield increased generation. Additionally, higher winter generation and summer reservoir constraints resulted in decreases in the spinning reserve potential for both RCP scenarios. We also examined a regionally downscaled “long drought” scenario under RCP8.5 to assess the impact of an extended dry period on generation and spinning reserve bidding. The long drought scenario, developed as part of the California 4th Climate Assessment, involves rainfall congruent with 20-year historical dry spells in California under increased temperatures. In addition to decreased generation, the long drought scenario yielded a 41% reduction in spinning reserve bidding tied to a decline in reservoir levels. The decreased spinning reserve bidding from hydropower may require increased reliance on other electricity resources that can provide the same dynamic support to maintain grid stability under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Kate Forrest & Brian Tarroja & Felicia Chiang & Amir AghaKouchak & Scott Samuelsen, 2018. "Assessing climate change impacts on California hydropower generation and ancillary services provision," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 395-412, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2329-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2329-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Vicuña & John Dracup & Larry Dale, 2011. "Climate change impacts on two high-elevation hydropower systems in California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 151-169, December.
    2. Chang, Martin K. & Eichman, Joshua D. & Mueller, Fabian & Samuelsen, Scott, 2013. "Buffering intermittent renewable power with hydroelectric generation: A case study in California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Edward Vine, 2012. "Adaptation of California’s electricity sector to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 75-99, March.
    4. Tarroja, Brian & AghaKouchak, Amir & Samuelsen, Scott, 2016. "Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 295-305.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    2. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Amirali Amir Jabbari & Ali Nazemi, 2019. "Alterations in Canadian Hydropower Production Potential Due to Continuation of Historical Trends in Climate Variables," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-29, September.
    4. Priyanka Majumder & Mrinmoy Majumder & Apu Kumar Saha & Soumitra Nath, 2020. "Selection of features for analysis of reliability of performance in hydropower plants: a multi-criteria decision making approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3239-3265, April.
    5. Surender Kumar & Madhu Khanna, 2019. "Temperature and production efficiency growth: empirical evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 209-229, September.
    6. Esteban Gil & Yerel Morales & Tomás Ochoa, 2021. "Addressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, January.
    7. Tarroja, Brian & Forrest, Kate & Chiang, Felicia & AghaKouchak, Amir & Samuelsen, Scott, 2019. "Implications of hydropower variability from climate change for a future, highly-renewable electric grid in California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 353-366.
    8. Wang, Sarah & Tarroja, Brian & Schell, Lori Smith & Samuelsen, Scott, 2021. "Determining cost-optimal approaches for managing excess renewable electricity in decarbonized electricity systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1187-1197.
    9. Su, Yufei & Kern, Jordan D. & Reed, Patrick M. & Characklis, Gregory W., 2020. "Compound hydrometeorological extremes across multiple timescales drive volatility in California electricity market prices and emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    10. Grubert, E. & Zacarias, M., 2022. "Paradigm shifts for environmental assessment of decarbonizing energy systems: Emerging dominance of embodied impacts and design-oriented decision support needs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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