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Spatiotemporal changes in the size and shape of heat waves over North America

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  • David Keellings

    (University of Alabama)

  • Erin Bunting

    (University of Florida)

  • Johanna Engström

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

Heat waves are occurring more frequently across the globe and are likely to increase in intensity and duration under climate change. Much work has already been completed on attributing causes of observed heat waves and on modeling their future occurrence, but such efforts are often lacking in exploration of spatial relationships. Based on principles of landscape ecology, we utilized fragmentation metrics to examine the spatiotemporal changes in heat wave shape and occurrence across North America. This methodological approach enables us to examine area, shape, perimeter, and other key metrics. The application of these shape metrics to high-resolution historical (1950–2013) climate data reveals that the total number and spatial extent of heat waves are increasing over the continent, but at an individual heat wave patch level, they are becoming significantly smaller in extent and more complex in shape, indicating that heat waves have become a more widespread and fragmented phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • David Keellings & Erin Bunting & Johanna Engström, 2018. "Spatiotemporal changes in the size and shape of heat waves over North America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 165-178, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2140-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2140-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael R. Grose & James S. Risbey & Penny H. Whetton, 2017. "Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 307-322, January.
    2. Sekhon, Jasjeet S., 2011. "Multivariate and Propensity Score Matching Software with Automated Balance Optimization: The Matching package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(i07).
    3. Stephanie E. Zick & Corene J. Matyas, 2016. "A Shape Metric Methodology for Studying the Evolving Geometries of Synoptic-Scale Precipitation Patterns in Tropical Cyclones," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 106(6), pages 1217-1235, November.
    4. Dian J. Gaffen & Rebecca J. Ross, 1998. "Increased summertime heat stress in the US," Nature, Nature, vol. 396(6711), pages 529-530, December.
    5. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Wanyama & Erin L. Bunting & Nicholas Weil & David Keellings, 2023. "Delineating and characterizing changes in heat wave events across the United States climate regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-23, February.

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