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The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance

Author

Listed:
  • Ethan D. Coffel

    (Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Terence R. Thompson

    (Logistics Management Institute (LMI))

  • Radley M. Horton

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Columbia University)

Abstract

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10–30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

Suggested Citation

  • Ethan D. Coffel & Terence R. Thompson & Radley M. Horton, 2017. "The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 381-388, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2018-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Stefan Gössling & Christoph Neger & Robert Steiger & Rainer Bell, 2023. "Weather, climate change, and transport: a review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1341-1360, September.
    4. Jingming Qian & Shujiang Miao & Nigel Tapper & Jianguang Xie & Greg Ingleton, 2020. "Investigation on Airport Landscape Cooling Associated with Irrigation: A Case Study of Adelaide Airport, Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Francesca Maltinti & Michela Flore & Franco Pigozzi & Mauro Coni, 2024. "Optimizing Airport Runway Capacity and Sustainability through the Introduction of Rapid Exit Taxiways: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Kaitano Dube & Godwell Nhamo, 2019. "Climate change and potential impacts on tourism: evidence from the Zimbabwean side of the Victoria Falls," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 2025-2041, August.
    7. Guy Gratton & Anil Padhra & Spyridon Rapsomanikis & Paul D. Williams, 2020. "The impacts of climate change on Greek airports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 219-231, May.
    8. Yuntao Zhou & Nan Zhang & Chao Li & Yong Liu & Ping Huang, 2018. "Decreased takeoff performance of aircraft due to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 463-472, December.
    9. Chen, Zhenhua & Wang, Yuxuan & Zhou, Lei, 2021. "Predicting weather-induced delays of high-speed rail and aviation in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.

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