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Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia

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  • Abera Demeke

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  • Alwin Keil
  • Manfred Zeller

Abstract

Ethiopia's agriculture is predominantly rainfed and hence any irregularity in weather conditions has adverse welfare implications. Using panel data, this paper analyzes the effect of rainfall shocks on Ethiopian rural households' food security and vulnerability over time while controlling for a range of other factors. To this end, we generated a time-variant household food security index which is developed by principal components analysis. Based on the scores of the index, households were classified into relative food security groups and their socioeconomic differences were assessed. The exploratory results show that compared to the less secured households, the more secured ones have male and literate household heads, tend to have a greater number of economically active household members, own more livestock, experience better rainfall outcome, participate in equb (a local savings group), and use chemical fertilizer. Fixed effects regression was used to identify the factors which affect the score's variability and the results indicate that rainfall shock is an important factor affecting households' food security over time. It is also noted that household size, head's age, participation in equb, off-farm activities, use of fertilizer, and livestock ownership positively and significantly affect the food security score. Results from multinomial logistic regression model reinforce the fixed effects regression results by showing the strong association of persistent food insecurity and vulnerability with adverse rainfall shock. A number of conclusions can be drawn from the results which are useful for policymakers as well as for agencies that engage in areas of risk and food security.
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Suggested Citation

  • Abera Demeke & Alwin Keil & Manfred Zeller, 2011. "Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 185-206, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:108:y:2011:i:1:p:185-206
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9994-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deressa, Temesgen Tadesse, 2007. "Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture : Ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4342, The World Bank.
    2. Bigsten, Arne & Kebede, Bereket & Shimeles, Abebe & Taddesse, Mekonnen, 2003. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia: Evidence from Household Panel Surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 87-106, January.
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    9. Pender, John & Nkonya, Ephraim & Jagger, Pamela & Sserunkuuma, Dick & Ssali, Henry, 2004. "Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 181-195, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tesfamicheal Wossen & Salvatore Falco & Thomas Berger & William McClain, 2016. "You are not alone: social capital and risk exposure in rural Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(4), pages 799-813, August.
    2. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s2010007817500014 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mamoon, Dawood & Ijaz, Kinza, 2017. "How Climate Change and Agriculture Fares with Food Security in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 81346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kumar, Ajay & Sharma, Pritee, 2013. "Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Ayala Wineman, 2016. "Multidimensional Household Food Security Measurement in Rural Zambia," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 278-301, July.
    6. repec:jed:journl:v:42:y:2017:i:4:p:59-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pienaar, Louw & Traub, Lulama, 2015. "Understanding the smallholder farmer in South Africa: Towards a sustainable livelihoods classification," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212633, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Ahmad, Munir & Mustafa, Ghulam & Iqbal, Muhammad, 2015. "Impact of Farm Households’ Adaptations to Climate Change on Food Security: Evidence from Different Agro-ecologies of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Murray, Anthony G & Mills, Bradford F, 2014. "Estimating the Resiliency of Zambian Smallholder Farmers: Evidence from a Three-Wave Panel," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170234, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Abafita, Jemal & Kim, Kyung-Ryang, 2014. "Determinants of Household Food Security in Rural Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 37(2), July.
    11. repec:pid:journl:v:55:y:2016:i:4:p:561-588 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Carine Meyimdjui, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers halshs-01457366, HAL.
    13. Carine MEYIMDJUI, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers 201703, CERDI.
    14. Meza-Pale, Pablo & Yunez-Naude, Antonio, 2015. "The Effect of Rainfall Variation on Agricultural Households: Evidence from Mexico," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212457, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Thiede, Brian C., 2014. "Rainfall Shocks and Within-Community Wealth Inequality: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 181-193.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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