IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uhohdp/57994.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Demeke, Abera Birhanu
  • Zeller, Manfred

Abstract

Ethiopia's agriculture is predominantly rainfed and hence any irregularity in weather conditions has adverse welfare implications. Using panel data, this paper analyzes the effect of rainfall shocks on Ethiopian rural households' food security and vulnerability over time while controlling for a range of other factors. To this end, we generated a time-variant household food security index which is developed by principal components analysis. Based on the scores of the index, households were classified into relative food security groups and their socioeconomic differences were assessed. The exploratory results show that compared to the less secured households, the more secured ones have male and literate household heads, tend to have a greater number of economically active household members, own more livestock, experience better rainfall outcome, participate in equb (a local savings group), and use chemical fertilizer. Fixed effects regression was used to identify the factors which affect the score's variability and the results indicate that rainfall shock is an important factor affecting households' food security over time. It is also noted that household size, head's age, participation in equb, off-farm activities, use of fertilizer, and livestock ownership positively and significantly affect the food security score. Results from multinomial logistic regression model reinforce the fixed effects regression results by showing the strong association of persistent food insecurity and vulnerability with adverse rainfall shock. A number of conclusions can be drawn from the results which are useful for policymakers as well as for agencies that engage in areas of risk and food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Demeke, Abera Birhanu & Zeller, Manfred, 2009. "Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia," Research in Development Economics and Policy (Discussion Paper Series) 57994, Universitaet Hohenheim, Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uhohdp:57994
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.57994
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/57994/files/Abera_Discussion_Paper-2-09_final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.57994?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2003. "Food Aid and Child Nutrition in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1309-1324, July.
    2. Deressa, Temesgen Tadesse, 2007. "Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture : Ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4342, The World Bank.
    3. Bigsten, Arne & Kebede, Bereket & Shimeles, Abebe & Taddesse, Mekonnen, 2003. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia: Evidence from Household Panel Surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 87-106, January.
    4. Hoddinott, John & Yohannes, Yisehac, 2002. "Dietary diversity as a food security indicator," FCND discussion papers 136, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2005. "Shocks and Consumption in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 1999--2004," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(4), pages 559-585, December.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    7. Deressa, Temesgen & Hassan, R. M. & Alemu, Tekie & Yesuf, Mahmud & Ringler, Claudia, 2008. "Analyzing the determinants of farmers' choice of adaptation methods and perceptions of climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia:," IFPRI discussion papers 798, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Yesuf, Mahmud & di Falco, Salvatore & Deressa, Temesgen & Ringler, Claudia & Kohlin, Gunnar, 2008. "The impact of climate change and adaptation on food production in low-income countries: Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 828, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Bereket Kebede, 2002. "Land Tenure and Common Pool Resources in Rural Ethiopia: A Study Based on Fifteen Sites," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 113-149.
    10. von Braun, Joachim, 1991. "A policy agenda for famine prevention in Africa," Food policy reports 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Zeller, Manfred & Sharma, Manohar, 2000. "Many borrow, more save, and all insure: implications for food and micro-finance policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 143-167, April.
    12. Webb, Patrick & von Braun, Joachim & Yohannes, Yisehac, 1992. "Famine in Ethiopia: policy implications of coping failure at national and household levels," Research reports 92, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Maxwell, Daniel & Caldwell, Richard & Langworthy, Mark, 2008. "Measuring food insecurity: Can an indicator based on localized coping behaviors be used to compare across contexts?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 533-540, December.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Risk Instability and the Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment in the Middle East and North Africa Region," IMF Working Papers 2004/139, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Pender, John & Nkonya, Ephraim & Jagger, Pamela & Sserunkuuma, Dick & Ssali, Henry, 2004. "Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 181-195, December.
    16. Charlotte Benson & Edward Clay, 1998. "Drought and Sub-Saharan African Economies," World Bank Publications - Reports 9884, The World Bank Group.
    17. Romina Cavatassi & Benjamin Davis & Leslie Lipper, 2004. "Estimating Poverty Over Time and Space: Construction of a time-variant poverty index for Costa Rica," Working Papers 04-21, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murendo, Conrad & Keil, Alwin & Zeller, Manfred, 2010. "Drought impacts and related risk management by smallholder farmers in developing countries: evidence from Awash River Basin, Ethiopia," Research in Development Economics and Policy (Discussion Paper Series) 114750, Universitaet Hohenheim, Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics.
    2. Daniel Ayalew Mekonnen & Daniel Ayalew Mekonnen & Nicolas Gerber & Nicolas Gerber, 2016. "Aspirations and income, food security and subjective well-being in rural Ethiopia," FOODSECURE Working papers 51, LEI Wageningen UR.
    3. Iqbal, Muhammad & Ahmad, Munir & Mustafa, Ghulam, 2015. "Impact of Farm Households’ Adaptation on Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Different Agro-ecologies of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Abafita, Jemal & Kim, Kyung-Ryang, 2014. "Determinants of Household Food Security in Rural Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 37(2), pages 1-29.
    5. Yesuf, Mahmud & di Falco, Salvatore & Deressa, Temesgen & Ringler, Claudia & Kohlin, Gunnar, 2008. "The impact of climate change and adaptation on food production in low-income countries: Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 828, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Mekonnen, Alemu & Deribe, Rahel & Abera, Samuel & Kassahun, Meseret Molla, 2013. "Crop-Livestock Inter-linkages and Climate Change Implications for Ethiopia’s Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach," RFF Working Paper Series dp-13-14-efd, Resources for the Future.
    7. Ouoba, Youmanli & Sawadogo, Natéwindé, 2022. "Food security, poverty and household resilience to COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: Evidence from urban small traders’ households," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    8. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2011. "Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-09-efd, Resources for the Future.
    9. Erwin Knippenberg & Dean Jolliffe & John Hoddinott, 2020. "Land Fragmentation and Food Insecurity in Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(5), pages 1557-1577, October.
    10. Tamiru Bezabih Sisay, 2020. "Debre Tabor University Faculty of social Sciences. Debre Tabor, Ethiopia," Agricultural Research & Technology: Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 5-13, August.
    11. Alem, Yonas, 2014. "Poverty Persistence and Intra-Household Heterogeneity in Occupations: Some Evidence from Ethiopia," RFF Working Paper Series dp-14-05-efd, Resources for the Future.
    12. Bezu, Sosina & Holden, Stein, 2008. "Can food-for-work encourage agricultural production?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 541-549, December.
    13. Nkonya, Ephraim & Place, Frank & Pender, John & Mwanjololo, Majaliwa & Okhimamhe, Appollonia & Kato, Edward & Crespo, Susana & Ndjeunga, Jupiter & Traore, Sibiry, 2011. "Climate risk management through sustainable land management in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Jolejole-Foreman, Maria Christina & Baylis, Katherine R. & Lipper, Leslie, 2012. "Land Degradation’s Implications on Agricultural Value of Production in Ethiopia: A look inside the bowl," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126251, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Yohannes, Yisehac, 2005. "How fair is workfare? gender, public works, and employment in rural Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3492, The World Bank.
    16. Tesfaye, Wondimagegn & Tirivayi, Nyasha, 2018. "The impacts of postharvest storage innovations on food security and welfare in Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 52-67.
    17. Betty, Mbolanyi & Anthony, Egeru & David, Mfitumukiza, 2017. "Determinants of household food security in a rangeland area of Uganda," African Journal of Rural Development (AFJRD), AFrican Journal of Rural Development (AFJRD), vol. 2(2), June.
    18. Salvatore Di Falco & Mahmud Yesuf & Gunnar Kohlin & Claudia Ringler, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 457-478, August.
    19. Kumasi, Tyhra Carolyn & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo, 2011. "Responding to land degradation in the highlands of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia:," IFPRI discussion papers 1142, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Security and Poverty; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uhohdp:57994. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iahohde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.