Stochastic Trends and Cycles in National Stock Market Indices: Evidence from the U.S., the U.K. and Switzerland
Co-movements of stock market indices in the U.S., the U.K. and Switzerland are analyzed using recent time series procedures. None of the series are found to share common permanent stochastic shocks that drive their long-run fluctuations. In the short run, however, there is evidence of a common serial correlation feature. Further, it is found that the U.S. stock index Granger causes the two other markets. Nevertheless, impulse response functions show little evidence of international spillovers and in a variance decomposition of forecast errors, most of the fluctuations are found to be attributable to shocks from the respective domestic market.
Volume (Year): 138 (2002)
Issue (Month): III (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 (0)44 631 32 34
Fax: +41 (0)44 631 39 01
Web page: http://www.sjes.chEmail:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Knif, Johan & Pynnonen, Seppo, 1999. "Local and global price memory of international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 129-147, April.
- Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990.
"Testing For Common Features,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- George M. von Furstenberg & Bang Nam Jeon, 1989. "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 125-180.
- Christian Jochum & Gebhard Kirchgässner & Mariusz Platek, 1999. "A long-run relationship between Eastern European stock markets? Cointegration and the 1997/98 crisis in emerging markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 454-479, September.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
- Anthony J. Richards, 1996.
"Comovements in National Stock Market Returns; Evidence of Predictability But Not Cointegration,"
IMF Working Papers
96/28, International Monetary Fund.
- Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1997. "A comparative analysis of the propagation of stock market fluctuations in alternative models of dynamic causal linkages," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 59-74.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
- Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
- Stengos, Thanasis & Panas, E, 1992. "Testing the Efficiency of the Athens Stock Exchange: Some Results from the Banking Sector," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 239-52.
- Levy, Haim & Sarnat, Marshall, 1970. "International Diversification of Investment Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 668-75, September.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
- Roll, R., 1989. "Price Volatility, International Market Links, And Their Implications For Regulatory Policies," Papers t10, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
- Dušan Isakov & Christophe Pérignon, 2000.
"On the dynamic interdependence of international stock markets: A Swiss perspective,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES),
Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 136(II), pages 123-146, June.
- Isakov, D. & Perignon, C., 1999. "On the Dynamic Interdependence of International Stock Markets: a Swiss Perspective," Papers 99.1, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Universite de Geneve-.
- Bertero, Elisabetta & Mayer, Colin, 1990.
"Structure and performance: Global interdependence of stock markets around the crash of October 1987,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1155-1180, September.
- Bertero, Elisabetta & Mayer, Colin, 1989. "Structure and Performance: Global Interdependence of Stock Markets Around the Crash of October 1987," CEPR Discussion Papers 307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- G. William Schwert, 1990.
"Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schwert, G William, 1990. " Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-57, September.
- Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2002-iii-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Steiner)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.