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An Econometric Model of Migration Between US Metropolitan Areas

Author

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  • Gershon Alperovich
  • Joel Bergsman
  • Christian Ehemann

Abstract

We test a model of inter-metropolitan migration using 1965-70 data for 284 metropolitan areas from the 1970 Census of Population. Innovations in model specification permit us to derive estimatable equations for gross in- and out-migration from a point-to-point hypothesis. Measures of economic conditions (the unemployment rate, the growth rate in employment, and the wage rate) are shown to affect migration behaviour both at origins and destinations, as economic theory predicts. Expected effects of past migration on both subsequent in-migration and out-migration are confirmed. In addition, migrants are shown to prefer destination cities that have moderate climates, that are relatively small in size, and that are close to larger cities. The research reported in this paper is part of a larger study of the joint determination of growth in employment in US metropolitan areas and of migration flows between them.

Suggested Citation

  • Gershon Alperovich & Joel Bergsman & Christian Ehemann, 1977. "An Econometric Model of Migration Between US Metropolitan Areas," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 135-145, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:14:y:1977:i:2:p:135-145
    DOI: 10.1080/00420987720080291
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henderson, J V, 1974. "The Sizes and Types of Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 640-656, September.
    2. Peter Morrison, 1967. "Duration of Residence and Prospective Migration: The Evaluation of a Stochastic Model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 4(2), pages 553-561, June.
    3. Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
    4. Kenneth Land, 1969. "Duration of residence and prospective migration: Further evidence," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 6(2), pages 133-140, May.
    5. Greenwood, Michael J, 1969. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Geographic Labor Mobility in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 189-194, May.
    6. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    7. Bergsman, Joel & Greenston, Peter & Healy, Robert, 1975. "A classification of economic activities based on location patterns," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Annekatrin Niebuhr & Tanja Buch & Silke Hamann & Anja Rossen, 2012. "Jobs or Amenities – What determines the migration balances of cities?," ERSA conference papers ersa12p401, European Regional Science Association.

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