IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/smppub/v14y2025i2p243-259.html

The Role of Central Bank Narratives in Economic Performance: Evidence from Armenia

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Avetisyan

Abstract

This article examines the role of the Central Bank of Armenia’s (CBA’s) communication strategy within the context of Armenia’s economic trajectory. By analysing key speeches delivered between 2003 and 2023, this study highlights the interplay between the central bank’s narratives and economic realities. Utilizing a combination of narrative economics and quantitative tools, the analysis identifies the CBA’s strategic use of communication to shape market expectations and promote economic stability. JEL Classification: E58, D83, C88, O11.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Avetisyan, 2025. "The Role of Central Bank Narratives in Economic Performance: Evidence from Armenia," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 14(2), pages 243-259, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:14:y:2025:i:2:p:243-259
    DOI: 10.1177/22779787251372382
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/22779787251372382
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/22779787251372382?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    2. Babatunde Samson Omotosho, 2020. "Central Bank Communication In Ghana: Insights From A Text Mining Analysis," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 5(1), pages 01-13, January.
    3. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    4. Benchimol, Jonathan & Kazinnik, Sophia & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Text mining methodologies with R: An application to central bank texts," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 8, pages 1-19.
    5. George A. Akerlof & Rachel E. Kranton, 2000. "Economics and Identity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 715-753.
    6. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Tumala, Mohammed M., 2019. "A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. David Bholat & Stephen Hans & Pedro Santos & Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, 2015. "Text mining for central banks," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 33, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-François & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy. The role of political parties’ stances in the European Central Bank’s parliamentary hearings," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Curti, Filippo & Kazinnik, Sophia, 2023. "Central bank communication and website characteristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1216-1241.
    3. Antón Sarabia Arturo & Bazdresch Santiago & Lelo-de-Larrea Alejandra, 2023. "The Influence of Central Bank's Projections and Economic Narrative on Professional Forecasters' Expectations: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2023-21, Banco de México.
    4. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2021. "Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication," Working Papers Series 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2023. "Analysing financial stability reports as crisis predictors with the use of text-mining," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Giacomo Caterini, 2020. "La comunicazione della Banca Centrale dei Caraibi Orientali: un?analisi testuale (On the communication of the Eastern Caribbeans Central Bank: A textual analysis)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(289), pages 57-82.
    7. Nicolò Fraccaroli & Alessandro Giovannini & Jean-François Jamet & Eric Persson, 2023. "Central Banks in Parliaments: A Text Analysis of the Parliamentary Hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 543-600, June.
    8. Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2020. "Effects of Banco de la Republica’s Communication on the Yield Curve," Borradores de Economia 1137, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy: the role of political parties’ stances in the ECB’s parliamentary hearings," Working Paper Series 2655, European Central Bank.
    10. Moreno-Pérez, Carlos & Minozzo, Marco, 2024. "‘Making text talk’: The minutes of the Central Bank of Brazil and the real economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Benchimol, Jonathan & Kazinnik, Sophia & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Text mining methodologies with R: An application to central bank texts," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 8, pages 1-19.
    12. Baumgärtner, Martin & Zahner, Johannes, 2025. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker — Embedding their words using neural networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    13. Ahrens, Maximilian & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & McMahon, Michael & Neely, Christopher J. & Yang, Xiye, 2025. "Mind your language: Market responses to central bank speeches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    14. Armando Marozzi, 2021. "The ECB and the Cost of Independence. Unearthing a New Doom-Loop in the European Monetary Union," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21152, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Cory Baird & Jonathan Benchimol & Vira Vyshnevska & Wook Sohn & Iegor Vyshnevskyi, 2026. "The monetary policy statement database," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data science in central banking, volume 67, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Łukasz Below, 2024. "Deconstructing the Fed’s decisions: analysis of the factors influencing monetary policy in the US," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(5), pages 623-660.
    17. Thiago Christiano Silva & Kei Moriya & Mr. Romain M Veyrune, 2025. "From Text to Quantified Insights: A Large-Scale LLM Analysis of Central Bank Communication," IMF Working Papers 2025/109, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Central Bank Communication during Economic Recessions: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Esa Mangeloja, 2004. "Interrelationship of economic growth and regional religious properties," ERSA conference papers ersa04p94, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Marco Colagrossi & Claudio Deiana & Andrea Geraci & Ludovica Giua, 2022. "Hang up on stereotypes: Domestic violence and an anti‐abuse helpline campaign," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 585-611, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:14:y:2025:i:2:p:243-259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.