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Exploring the Dynamics of the Democratic Peace

Author

Listed:
  • Lars-Erik Cederman

    (Government Department, Harvard University)

  • Mohan Penubarti Rao

    (Director, InteCap, Inc.)

Abstract

In quantitative models of international conflict, the variables' causal effects are generally assumed to be constant over historical time. Yet, qualitative liberal theorizing, especially that of Immanuel Kant, has tended to emphasize a dynamic perspective based on the theme of progress. To bridge this gap between method-imposed stasis and theoretical dynamics, a framework featuring time-varying parameters is applied to the democratic peace hypothesis. The model strongly confirms a dynamic reinterpretation of Kant's theory. Results show that dispute probabilities decline steadily among democratic states over time, and the democratic peace hypothesis is not just a transient cold war effect. This result is robust to statistical control involving geopolitical and liberal control variables, including alliances, capabilities, and economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars-Erik Cederman & Mohan Penubarti Rao, 2001. "Exploring the Dynamics of the Democratic Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(6), pages 818-833, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:6:p:818-833
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002701045006006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Modelski, George, 1990. "Is world politics evolutionary learning?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Cederman, Lars-Erik, 2001. "Back to Kant: Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace as a Macrohistorical Learning Process," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 15-31, March.
    3. Kalaba, Robert & Rasakhoo, Nima & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1989. "A FORTRAN program for time-varying linear regression via flexible least squares," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 291-309, February.
    4. Levy, Jack S., 1994. "Learning and foreign policy: sweeping a conceptual minefield," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 279-312, April.
    5. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Henry Farber & Joanne Gowa, 1997. "Building Bridges Abroad," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(3), pages 455-456, June.
    7. Beck, Nathaniel & King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2000. "Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 21-35, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2017. "The Globalization and Peace Nexus: Findings Using Two Composite Indices," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 871-885, April.

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