IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/inddev/v10y2016i1p10-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

India’s Demographic Dividend: A Sceptical Look

Author

Listed:
  • Ajit Kumar Singh

Abstract

This article critically examines the assumptions behind the demographic dividend hypothesis and tries to assess to what extent India is in a position to tap the potential demographic dividend. It argues that the assumptions underlying the demographic dividend hypothesis are weak. The benefits flowing from an increasing proportion of working-age population are not an irrefutable law but depend upon the empirical situation that may differ from country to country. In the conditions prevailing in India, the high optimism about India’s ability to reap the demographic dividend found among the scholars and the official circles seems to be misplaced. The quality of Indian labour force leaves much to be desired in terms of its education, skill base and health status.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajit Kumar Singh, 2016. "India’s Demographic Dividend: A Sceptical Look," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 10(1), pages 10-26, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inddev:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:10-26
    DOI: 10.1177/0973703016636445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0973703016636445
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0973703016636445?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kelley, Allen C & Schmidt, Robert M, 1996. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386, November.
    2. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    3. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    4. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    5. Sonalde Desai, 2014. "Demographic Deposit, Dividend and Debt," NCAER Working Papers 108, National Council of Applied Economic Research.
    6. Mitra, Arup, & Verick, Sher., 2013. "Youth employment and unemployment : an Indian perspective," ILO Working Papers 994806863402676, International Labour Organization.
    7. repec:ilo:ilowps:480686 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Aiyar, Shekhar & Mody, Ashoka, 2013. "The Demographic Dividend: Evidence from the Indian States," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 105-148.
    9. Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
    10. Utsav Kumar, 2010. "India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective," Economics Program Working Papers 10-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    2. Kogel, Tomas, 2005. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 147-173, February.
    3. Neha Jain & Srinivas Goli, 2022. "Demographic change and private savings in India," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 1-29, June.
    4. Gemma Estrada & Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi, 2012. "Population aging and aggregate consumption in developing Asia," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 4, pages 111-129, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Douglas Gollin & Fabian Lange, 2013. "Equipping immigrants: migration flows and capital movements in small open economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 749-777, December.
    6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2000. "Can age structure forecast inflation trends?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 31-49.
    8. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
    9. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Demographic Change and Private Savings in India," SocArXiv n73ab, Center for Open Science.
    10. Laishram Ladusingh & M.R. Narayana, 2012. "Demographic dividends for India: evidence and implications based on National Transfer Accounts," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 7, pages 203-230, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Das Gupta, Monica & Bongaarts, John & Cleland, John, 2011. "Population, poverty, and sustainable development : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5719, The World Bank.
    12. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2007. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 553-567.
    13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    14. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    15. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.
    16. Roli Misra, 2015. "Impact of Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth," International Studies, , vol. 52(1-4), pages 99-117, January.
    17. Ngozi M. Nwakeze, 2014. "The Nexus Between Macroeconomics and Demographics: Implications for Sustainable Development," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(2), pages 285-298.
    18. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2016. "From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 461-490, November.
    19. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & John Nkwoma Inekwe & Kuntal K. Das & Umakant Dash & Augustine C Arize, 2022. "Does the Pattern of Age Dependency Matter in the Promotion of Financial Development in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers in Economics 22/06, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    20. Lar, Ni & Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2020. "Population Age Structure, Saving Rate impacts on Economic Growth: Myanmar Case," MPRA Paper 102336, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:inddev:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:10-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.