IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v41y2020i5p55-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stretching the Duck: How Rising Temperatures will Change the Level and Shape of Future Electricity Consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Rivers
  • Blake Shaffer

Abstract

This paper examines how rising temperatures due to climate change will affect electricity consumption patterns through mid- and end-century. We extend recent literature in two important ways. First, we directly incorporate adaptation in the form of increased air conditioner penetration, resulting in heightened responsiveness to hot temperatures. Second, we go beyond average effects to consider how higher temperatures will change the intraday and seasonal shape of consumption. This is found to be of greater importance in colder countries, where the average effect is dampened by reductions in heating demand from warmer winters. Seasonal peaks are projected to shift from winter to summer and the diurnal range of hourly consumption expands, exacerbating an increasing need for flexibility coming from the supply side due to a growing share of renewable energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Rivers & Blake Shaffer, 2020. "Stretching the Duck: How Rising Temperatures will Change the Level and Shape of Future Electricity Consumption," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(5), pages 55-88, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:41:y:2020:i:5:p:55-88
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.5.nriv
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.41.5.nriv
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.41.5.nriv?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
    2. Austin C. Smith, 2016. "Spring Forward at Your Own Risk: Daylight Saving Time and Fatal Vehicle Crashes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 65-91, April.
    3. Maximilian Auffhammer & Anin Aroonruengsawat, 2012. "Erratum to: Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California’s residential electricity consumption," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 1101-1104, August.
    4. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    5. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    6. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short And Long Run Impacts Of Climate Change On Residential Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Using Big Data," NBER Working Papers 24397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wei, Kai & Lin, Boqiang, 2025. "Do extreme temperatures exacerbate residential energy expenses burden in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Antweiler, Werner & Muesgens, Felix, 2025. "The new merit order: The viability of energy-only electricity markets with only intermittent renewable energy sources and grid-scale storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Zhang, Guoxing & Shen, Lin & Su, Bin, 2023. "Temperature change and daily urban-rural residential electricity consumption in northwestern China: Responsiveness and inequality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Ekaterina Alekhanova, 2023. "Summertime Sadness: Time Sensitivity of Electricity Savings from a Behavioral Nudge," Carleton Economic Papers 23-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 11 Nov 2023.
    5. Jones, Andrew & Nock, Destenie & Samaras, Constantine & Qiu, Yueming (Lucy) & Xing, Bo, 2023. "Climate change impacts on future residential electricity consumption and energy burden: A case study in Phoenix, Arizona," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    6. David P. Brown & Derek E. H. Olmstead & Blake Shaffer, 2024. "Electricity Market Design with Increasing Renewable Generation: Lessons From Alberta," Working Papers 2024-3, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    7. Chen, Haitao & Zhang, Bin & Wang, Zhaohua, 2022. "Hidden inequality in household electricity consumption: Measurement and determinants based on large-scale smart meter data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Alexander Golub & Kristina Govorukha & Philip Mayer & Dirk Rübbelke, 2022. "Climate Change and the Vulnerability of Germany’s Power Sector to Heat and Drought," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(3), pages 157-184, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rivers, Nicholas & Shaffer, Blake, 2018. "Stretching the Duck's Neck: The effect of climate change on future electricity demand," MPRA Paper 87309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Achyuta Adhvaryu & Prashant Bharadwaj & James Fenske & Anant Nyshadham & Richard Stanley, 2024. "Dust and Death: Evidence from the West African Harmattan," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(659), pages 885-912.
    3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Bento, Antonio M. & Miller, Noah & Mookerjee, Mehreen & Severnini, Edson, 2023. "A unifying approach to measuring climate change impacts and adaptation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Hailemariam, Abebe & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Appau, Samuelson, 2023. "Temperature, health and wellbeing in Australia," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    6. Feriga,Moustafa Amgad Moustafa Ahmed Moustafa & Lozano Gracia,Nancy & Serneels,Pieter Maria, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work : Lessons for Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10682, The World Bank.
    7. Moustafa Feriga & Mancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2024. "The impact of climate change on work lessons for developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2024-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. Tamma Carleton & Amir Jina & Michael Delgado & Michael Greenstone & Trevor Houser & Solomon Hsiang & Andrew Hultgren & Robert E Kopp & Kelly E McCusker & Ishan Nath & James Rising & Ashwin Rode & Hee , 2023. "Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(4), pages 2037-2105.
    9. Edward Manderson & Timothy Considine, 2021. "The Effect of Temperature on Energy Demand and the Role of Adaptation," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2112, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew E. Kahn, 2016. "Industrial Productivity in a Hotter World: The Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Firm Investment in Air Conditioning," NBER Working Papers 22962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lehr, Jakob & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2024. "The effect of temperature on energy related CO2 emissions and economic performance in German industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Lehr, Jakob & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2021. "The Effect of Temperature on Energy Use and CO₂ Emissions in the German Industry," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242373, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2022. "Energy poverty, temperature and climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Alexander C. Abajian & Tamma Carleton & Kyle C. Meng & Olivier Deschênes, 2025. "Quantifying the global climate feedback from energy-based adaptation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    16. Hsing-Hsiang Huang & Michael R. Moore, 2018. "Farming under Weather Risk: Adaptation, Moral Hazard, and Selection on Moral Hazard," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 77-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Wang, Meng & Zhang, Shiying, 2024. "High temperatures and traffic accident crimes: Evidence from more than 470,000 offenses in China," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    18. Joshua Graff Zivin & Solomon M. Hsiang & Matthew Neidell, 2018. "Temperature and Human Capital in the Short and Long Run," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 77-105.
    19. François Cohen & Matthieu Glachant & Magnus Söderberg, 2017. "The cost of adapting to climate change: evidence from the US residential sector," Working Papers hal-01695171, HAL.
    20. Harish, Santosh & Singh, Nishmeet & Tongia, Rahul, 2020. "Impact of temperature on electricity demand: Evidence from Delhi and Indian states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:41:y:2020:i:5:p:55-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.