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Optimal Storage, Investment and Management under Uncertainty: It is Costly to Avoid Outages!

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  • Joachim Geske
  • Richard Green

Abstract

We show how electricity storage is operated optimally when the load net of renewable output is uncertain. We estimate a diurnal Markov-process representation of how Germany’s residual load changed from hour to hour and design a simple dynamic stochastic electricity system model with non-intermittent generation technologies and storage. We derive the optimal storage, generator output and capacity levels. If storage capacity replaces some generation capacity, the optimal storage strategy must balance arbitrage (between periods of high and low marginal cost) against precautionary storage to ensure energy is available throughout a long peak in net demand. Solving the model numerically under uncertainty (only the transition probabilities to future loads are known), we compare the results to perfect foresight findings. The latter over-estimate the cost-saving potential of energy storage by 27%, as storage can take up arbitrage opportunities that would not be chosen if there was a need for precautionary storage.

Suggested Citation

  • Joachim Geske & Richard Green, 2020. "Optimal Storage, Investment and Management under Uncertainty: It is Costly to Avoid Outages!," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(2), pages 1-28, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:41:y:2020:i:2:p:1-28
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.2.jges
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard J. Green, 2008. "Electricity Wholesale Markets: Designs Now and in a Low-carbon Future," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 95-124.
    2. Möst, Dominik & Keles, Dogan, 2010. "A survey of stochastic modelling approaches for liberalised electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 543-556, December.
    3. Simonsen, Ingve & Weron, Rafal & Mo, Birger, 2004. "Structure and stylized facts of a deregulated power market," MPRA Paper 1443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Newbery, David, 2021. "National Energy and Climate Plans for the island of Ireland: wind curtailment, interconnectors and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Cristian Junge & Dharik Mallapragada & Richard Schmalensee, 2022. "Energy Storage Investment and Operation in Efficient Electric Power Systems," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(6), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Topalović, Zejneba & Haas, Reinhard & Ajanović, Amela & Hiesl, Albert, 2022. "Economics of electric energy storage. The case of Western Balkans," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    6. Richard Schmalensee, 2022. "Competitive Energy Storage and the Duck Curve," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(2), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Best, Rohan & Li, Han & Trück, Stefan & Truong, Chi, 2021. "Actual uptake of home batteries: The key roles of capital and policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Stan Zachary & Amy Wilson & Chris Dent, 2022. "The Integration of Variable Generation and Storage into Electricity Capacity Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(4), pages 231-250, May.
    9. Reinhard Haas & Claudia Kemfert & Hans Auer & Amela Ajanovic & Marlene Sayer & Albert Hiesl, 2022. "On the economics of storage for electricity: Current state and future market design prospects," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), May.
    10. Gorman, Will & Montañés, Cristina Crespo & Mills, Andrew & Kim, James Hyungkwan & Millstein, Dev & Wiser, Ryan, 2022. "Are coupled renewable-battery power plants more valuable than independently sited installations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    11. Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2024. "The effect of PV generation's hourly variations on Israel's solar investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Irena Milstein & Asher Tishler & Chi-Keung Woo, 2024. "Carbon-free Electricity Supply in a Cournot Wholesale Market: Israel," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 1-21, March.
    13. Albert Hiesl & Amela Ajanovic & Reinhard Haas, 2020. "On current and future economics of electricity storage," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(6), pages 1176-1192, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity Storage; Uncertainty; Stochastic Electricity System Model; Precautionary Storage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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