IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v95y2025ics0957178725000487.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the effects of photovoltaic technology, battery storage, and electric vehicles on Israel's electricity market from 2030 to 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Milstein, I.
  • Tishler, A.
  • Woo, C.K.

Abstract

This study assesses the economics of Israel's wholesale electricity market from 2030 to 2050 with rising market penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) technology, battery storage, and electric vehicles. The competing independent power producers (IPPs) employ PV generation cum battery storage (PVB) or natural gas (NG) to meet each day's hourly demands. Using two-stage models to determine the short-run market equilibrium of electricity generation and prices and the long-run market equilibrium mix of PV, NG, and battery capacities, we show that declining battery costs enable PVB IPPs to replace 100 % of the NG IPPs, leading to a carbon-free electricity supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2025. "Modeling the effects of photovoltaic technology, battery storage, and electric vehicles on Israel's electricity market from 2030 to 2050," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:95:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725000487
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.101933
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178725000487
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jup.2025.101933?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joachim Geske & Richard Green, 2020. "Optimal Storage, Investment and Management under Uncertainty: It is Costly to Avoid Outages!," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(2), pages 1-28, March.
    2. David M Newbery, 2018. "What future(s) for liberalized electricity markets: efficient, equitable or innovative?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    3. Afzal S. Siddiqui & Ramteen Sioshansi & Antonio J. Conejo, 2019. "Merchant Storage Investment in a Restructured Electricity Industry," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(4), pages 129-164, July.
    4. Khan, Agha Salman M. & Verzijlbergh, Remco A. & Sakinci, Ozgur Can & De Vries, Laurens J., 2018. "How do demand response and electrical energy storage affect (the need for) a capacity market?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 39-62.
    5. Newbery, David, 2016. "Missing money and missing markets: Reliability, capacity auctions and interconnectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-410.
    6. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2019. "On the effects of capacity payments in competitive electricity markets: Capacity adequacy, price cap, and reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 370-385.
    7. Newbery, D. G., 2016. "A simple introduction to the economics of storage: shifting demand and supply over time and space," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1661, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Peter Cramton, 2017. "Electricity market design," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 33(4), pages 589-612.
    9. Zakeri, Behnam & Syri, Sanna, 2015. "Electrical energy storage systems: A comparative life cycle cost analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 569-596.
    10. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Short- and long-run electricity demand elasticities at the subsectoral level: A cointegration analysis for German manufacturing industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-187.
    11. Paul J. Burke & Ashani Abayasekara, 2018. "The Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand in the United States: A Three-Dimensional Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2), pages 123-146, March.
    12. Michael G. Pollitt & Karim L. Anaya, 2021. "Competition in Markets for Ancillary Services? The Implications of Rising Distributed Generation," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(1_suppl), pages 1-2, June.
    13. Virasjoki, Vilma & Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Oliveira, Fabricio & Salo, Ahti, 2020. "Utility-scale energy storage in an imperfectly competitive power sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Debia, Sébastien & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Siddiqui, Afzal S., 2019. "Strategic use of storage: The impact of carbon policy, resource availability, and technology efficiency on a renewable-thermal power system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 100-122.
    15. Irena Milstein & Asher Tishler & Chi-Keung Woo, 2024. "Carbon-free Electricity Supply in a Cournot Wholesale Market: Israel," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Baiardi, Donatella, 2020. "Do sustainable energy policies matter for reducing air pollution?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Woo, C.K. & Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Zarnikau, J., 2019. "A wholesale electricity market design sans missing money and price manipulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Elliston, Ben & Diesendorf, Mark & MacGill, Iain, 2012. "Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 606-613.
    19. Maryam Arbabzadeh & Ramteen Sioshansi & Jeremiah X. Johnson & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2019. "Author Correction: The role of energy storage in deep decarbonization of electricity production," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, December.
    20. Elliston, Ben & MacGill, Iain & Diesendorf, Mark, 2013. "Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 270-282.
    21. C. K. Woo & K. H. Cao & H. Qi & J. Zarnikau & R. Li, 2024. "Price responsiveness of solar and wind capacity demands," Post-Print hal-04597188, HAL.
    22. Tommi Ekholm and Vilma Virasjoki, 2020. "Pricing and Competition with 100% Variable Renewable Energy and Storage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    23. Traber, Thure, 2017. "Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms for Reliability in the Integrated European Electricity Market: Effects on Welfare and Distribution through 2023," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-14.
    24. Uddin, Kotub & Dubarry, Matthieu & Glick, Mark B., 2018. "The viability of vehicle-to-grid operations from a battery technology and policy perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 342-347.
    25. David M. Newbery, 2018. "What Future(s) for Liberalized Electricity Markets: Efficient, Equitable or Innovative?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 1-28, January.
    26. Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2024. "The effect of PV generation's hourly variations on Israel's solar investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    27. Lüth, Alexandra & Zepter, Jan Martin & Crespo del Granado, Pedro & Egging, Ruud, 2018. "Local electricity market designs for peer-to-peer trading: The role of battery flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 1233-1243.
    28. Nissan Levin & Asher Tishler & Jacob Zahavi, 1983. "Time Step vs. Dynamic Optimization of Generation-Capacity-Expansion Programs of Power Systems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(5), pages 891-914, October.
    29. David Newbery, 2023. "Efficient Renewable Electricity Support: Designing an Incentive-compatible Support Scheme," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(3), pages 1-22, May.
    30. Shahmohammadi, Ali & Sioshansi, Ramteen & Conejo, Antonio J. & Afsharnia, Saeed, 2018. "Market equilibria and interactions between strategic generation, wind, and storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 876-892.
    31. Afzal S. Siddiqui, Ramteen Sioshansi, and Antonio J. Conejo, 2019. "Merchant Storage Investment in a Restructured Electricity Industry," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    32. Brand, Christian & Anable, Jillian & Ketsopoulou, Ioanna & Watson, Jim, 2020. "Road to zero or road to nowhere? Disrupting transport and energy in a zero carbon world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    33. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2022. "Wholesale electricity market economics of solar generation in Israel," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    34. Sani Hassan, Abubakar & Cipcigan, Liana & Jenkins, Nick, 2017. "Optimal battery storage operation for PV systems with tariff incentives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 422-441.
    35. Daniel R. Jiang & Warren B. Powell, 2015. "Optimal Hour-Ahead Bidding in the Real-Time Electricity Market with Battery Storage Using Approximate Dynamic Programming," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 27(3), pages 525-543, August.
    36. Weiss, Olga & Bogdanov, Dmitry & Salovaara, Kaisa & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2017. "Market designs for a 100% renewable energy system: Case isolated power system of Israel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 266-277.
    37. Dietrich, Andreas & Weber, Christoph, 2018. "What drives profitability of grid-connected residential PV storage systems? A closer look with focus on Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 399-416.
    38. David Newbery, 2023. "Efficient Renewable Electricity Support: Designing an Incentive-compatible Support Scheme," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    39. Dufo-López, Rodolfo, 2015. "Optimisation of size and control of grid-connected storage under real time electricity pricing conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 395-408.
    40. Soini, Martin Christoph & Parra, David & Patel, Martin Kumar, 2020. "Does bulk electricity storage assist wind and solar in replacing dispatchable power production?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    41. Paul Simshauser and Joel Gilmore, 2020. "On Entry Cost Dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    42. Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S. & Woo, C.K. & Tsai, C.H., 2020. "Texas's operating reserve demand curve's generation investment incentive," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    43. Richard Schmalensee, 2022. "Competitive Energy Storage and the Duck Curve," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(2), pages 1-16, March.
    44. Donatella Baiardi, 2020. "Do sustainable energy policies matter for reducing greenhouse gas emissions?," Working Papers 425, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    45. Tommi Ekholm & Vilma Virasjoki, 2020. "Pricing and Competition with 100% Variable Renewable Energy and Storage," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(1_suppl), pages 215-232, June.
    46. Engels, Jonas & Claessens, Bert & Deconinck, Geert, 2019. "Techno-economic analysis and optimal control of battery storage for frequency control services, applied to the German market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1036-1049.
    47. Maryam Arbabzadeh & Ramteen Sioshansi & Jeremiah X. Johnson & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2019. "The role of energy storage in deep decarbonization of electricity production," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    48. Paul Simshauser & Joel Gilmore, 2020. "On Entry Cost Dynamics in Australia’s National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(1), pages 259-288, January.
    49. Alagappan, L. & Orans, R. & Woo, C.K., 2011. "What drives renewable energy development?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5099-5104, September.
    50. He, Qiao-Chu & Yang, Yun & Bai, Lingquan & Zhang, Baosen, 2020. "Smart energy storage management via information systems design," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    51. Stephen Comello & Stefan Reichelstein, 2019. "The emergence of cost effective battery storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2024. "The effect of PV generation's hourly variations on Israel's solar investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Irena Milstein & Asher Tishler & Chi-Keung Woo, 2024. "Carbon-free Electricity Supply in a Cournot Wholesale Market: Israel," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2022. "Wholesale electricity market economics of solar generation in Israel," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Kang Hua Cao & Han Qi & Chi-Keung Woo & Jay Zarnikau & Raymond Li, 2024. "Efficient Frontiers for Short-term Sales of Spot and Forward Wind Energy in Texas," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(6), pages 37-60, November.
    6. Tourgeman, Miriam & Cohen, Chen & Rubin, Ofir, 2024. "Preserving competition and economic welfare in Israel's PV market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Lebeau, Alexis & Petitet, Marie & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2024. "Long-term issues with the Energy-Only Market design in the context of deep decarbonization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Simshauser, Paul & Newbery, David, 2024. "Non-firm vs priority access: On the long run average and marginal costs of renewables in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Thomaßen, Georg & Redl, Christian & Bruckner, Thomas, 2022. "Will the energy-only market collapse? On market dynamics in low-carbon electricity systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    10. Andreolli, Francesca & D’Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele, 2022. "Valuing investments in domestic PV-Battery Systems under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    12. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Li, R. & Woo, C.K. & Tishler, A. & Zarnikau, J., 2023. "An experiment in own-price elasticity estimation for non-residential electricity demand in the U.S," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Simshauser, Paul, 2024. "On static vs. dynamic line ratings in renewable energy zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2023. "System price dynamics for battery storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    15. Mier, Mathias, 2021. "Efficient pricing of electricity revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Deakin, Matthew & Bloomfield, Hannah & Greenwood, David & Sheehy, Sarah & Walker, Sara & Taylor, Phil C., 2021. "Impacts of heat decarbonization on system adequacy considering increased meteorological sensitivity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    17. Kang Hua Cao & Han Steffan Qi & Chi-Keung Woo & Jay William Zarnikau & Raymond Li, 2025. "Prudent Electricity Procurement by a Load Serving Entity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Ali Darudi & Hannes Weigt, 2024. "Review and Assessment of Decarbonized Future Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-38, September.
    19. Davi-Arderius, Daniel & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Measuring a Paradox: Zero-negative Electricity Prices," Working Papers 13-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    20. Nina Munzke & Felix Büchle & Anna Smith & Marc Hiller, 2021. "Influence of Efficiency, Aging and Charging Strategy on the Economic Viability and Dimensioning of Photovoltaic Home Storage Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-46, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:95:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725000487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/utilities-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.