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Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren
  • Elie Bellevrat
  • Alban Kitous
  • Morna Isaac

Abstract

This paper explores the potential for bio-energy production, and the implications of different values for the attainability of low stabilization targets. The impact of scenarios of future land use, yield improvements for bio-energy and available land under different sustainability assumptions (protection of biodiversity, risks of water scarcity and land degradation) are explored. Typical values for sustainable potential of bio-energy production are around 50-150 EJ in 2050 and 200-400 EJ in 2100. Higher bio-energy potential requires a development path with high agricultural yields, dietary patterns with low meat consumption, a low population and/or accepting high conversion rates of natural areas. Scenario analysis using four different models shows that low stabilization levels may be achieved with a bio-energy potential of around 200 EJ p.a. In such scenarios, bio-energy is in most models mainly used outside the transport sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Detlef P. van Vuuren & Elie Bellevrat & Alban Kitous & Morna Isaac, 2010. "Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(1_suppl), pages 193-222, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:31:y:2010:i:1_suppl:p:193-222
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-8
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