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Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren
  • Elie Bellevrat
  • Alban Kitous
  • Morna Isaac

Abstract

This paper explores the potential for bio-energy production, and the implications of different values for the attainability of low stabilization targets. The impact of scenarios of future land use, yield improvements for bio-energy and available land under different sustainability assumptions (protection of biodiversity, risks of water scarcity and land degradation) are explored. Typical values for sustainable potential of bio-energy production are around 50-150 EJ in 2050 and 200-400 EJ in 2100. Higher bio-energy potential requires a development path with high agricultural yields, dietary patterns with low meat consumption, a low population and/or accepting high conversion rates of natural areas. Scenario analysis using four different models shows that low stabilization levels may be achieved with a bio-energy potential of around 200 EJ p.a. In such scenarios, bio-energy is in most models mainly used outside the transport sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Detlef P. van Vuuren & Elie Bellevrat & Alban Kitous & Morna Isaac, 2010. "Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(1_suppl), pages 193-222, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:31:y:2010:i:1_suppl:p:193-222
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Hoogwijk, Monique & van Vuuren, Detlef & de Vries, Bert & Turkenburg, Wim, 2007. "Exploring the impact on cost and electricity production of high penetration levels of intermittent electricity in OECD Europe and the USA, results for wind energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1381-1402.
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