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Expectations and the Evolving World Gas Market

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  • Dagobert L. Brito
  • Peter R. Hartley

Abstract

A number of authors have noted that recent changes in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry are likely to favor shorter term multilateral trades of LNG relative to long term bilateral and project-specific contracts. We present a model in which expectations of such a change in market structure alter investment behavior in a way that reinforces the original tendency. The result is that the structure of the natural gas market could change quite quickly, as happened previously in the world oil market.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagobert L. Brito & Peter R. Hartley, 2007. "Expectations and the Evolving World Gas Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(1), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:28:y:2007:i:1:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No1-1
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    1. Peter A. Diamond & Eric Maskin, 1979. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Search and Breach of Contract, I: Steady States," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 282-316, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fontini, Fulvio & Paloscia, Lorenzo, 2007. "The impact of the new investments in combined cycle gas turbine power plants on the Italian electricity price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4671-4676, September.
    2. Peter R. Hartley, 2015. "The Future of Long-term LNG Contracts," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(3), pages 209-234, July.
    3. Youngho Chang & Dang Thi Quynh Trang & Tsiat Siong Tan & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2021. "Competition and cooperation in the natural gas market: a game-theoretic demand-base analysis," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-49, December.
    4. Abdullahi Alim & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2018. "Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 123-142, January.
    5. Christian Hirschhausen & Anne Neumann, 2008. "Long-Term Contracts and Asset Specificity Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of Producer–Importer Relations in the Natural Gas Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 32(2), pages 131-143, March.
    6. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Will the energy price bubble burst?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 276-288.
    7. Gabriel, S.A. & Rosendahl, K.E. & Egging, Ruud & Avetisyan, H.G. & Siddiqui, S., 2012. "Cartelization in gas markets: Studying the potential for a “Gas OPEC”," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 137-152.
    8. Oglend, Atle & Kleppe, Tore Selland & Osmundsen, Petter, 2016. "Trade with endogenous transportation costs: The case of liquefied natural gas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 138-148.
    9. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
    10. Atle Oglend & Petter Osmundsen & Tore Selland Kleppe, 2015. "Trade with Endogenous Transportation Costs: The Value of LNG Exports," CESifo Working Paper Series 5222, CESifo.
    11. Robert A. Ritz, 2016. "Strategic investment, multimarket interaction and competitive advantage: An application to the natural gas industry," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1603, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Dorigoni, Susanna & Graziano, Clara & Pontoni, Federico, 2010. "Can LNG increase competitiveness in the natural gas market?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7653-7664, December.
    13. Anne Neumann & Karsten Neuhoff, 2011. "Facilitating Low-Carbon Investments: Lessons from Natural Gas," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1154, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Chi-Kong Chyong, 2015. "Markets and long-term contracts: The case of Russian gas supplies to Europe," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Finn Roar Aune, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "Globalisation of Natural Gas Markets - Effects on Prices and Trade Patterns," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 39-54.
    16. Chyong, C-K., 2019. "Challenges to the Future of European Single Market in Natural Gas," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1918, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Chi Kong Chyong, 2019. "European Natural Gas Markets: Taking Stock and Looking Forward," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 55(1), pages 89-109, August.
    18. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.
    19. Robert A. Ritz, 2013. "Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage in global LNG markets," Working Papers EPRG 1317, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    20. Ritz, Robert A., 2014. "Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage: An analysis of global LNG markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 324-332.
    21. Massol, Olivier & Tchung-Ming, Stéphane, 2010. "Cooperation among liquefied natural gas suppliers: Is rationalization the sole objective?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 933-947, July.
    22. Anne Neumann & Sophia Rüster & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2015. "Long-Term Contracts in the Natural Gas Industry: Literature Survey and Data on 426 Contracts (1965-2014)," Data Documentation 77, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    23. Maxwell, Don & Zhu, Zhen, 2011. "Natural gas prices, LNG transport costs, and the dynamics of LNG imports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 217-226, March.
    24. Chi-Kong Chyong & Roman Kazmin, 2016. "The economics of global LNG trade: the case of Atlantic and Pacific inter-basin arbitrage in 2010-2014," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1604, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; LNG; market sstructure; gas industry; integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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