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Drafting for Success: How Good Are NFL Teams at Identifying Future Productivity at Offensive-Skill Positions in the Draft?

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  • Joshua D. Pitts
  • Brent Evans

Abstract

Employing data on offensive-skill players drafted between 2002 and 2013, we are able to determine if the factors correlated with a player’s productivity in the National Football League (NFL) are the same factors correlated with him being selected earlier in the NFL draft. While our findings affirm many of the strategies employed by NFL teams, the analysis uncovers potential avenues for improving drafting strategy. For instance, our results suggest that teams are overvaluing or undervaluing certain player characteristics on draft day. We also compare the performance of our empirical models with that of NFL teams in their ability to project the future productivity of incoming players. We conclude that the NFL teams most likely to enjoy success moving forward are those that are able to combine traditional player evaluation methods with analytical approaches to player evaluation. JEL Classifications : L83, M51, Z20, Z22

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua D. Pitts & Brent Evans, 2019. "Drafting for Success: How Good Are NFL Teams at Identifying Future Productivity at Offensive-Skill Positions in the Draft?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 64(1), pages 102-122, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:64:y:2019:i:1:p:102-122
    DOI: 10.1177/0569434518812678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wallace Hendricks & Lawrence DeBrock & Roger Koenker, 2003. "Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 857-886, October.
    2. Julianne Treme & Samuel K. Allen, 2009. "Widely Received: Payoffs to Player Attributes in the NFL," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1631-1643.
    3. Mulholland Jason & Jensen Shane T., 2014. "Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football League," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Carl T. Kitchens, 2015. "Are Winners Promoted Too Often? Evidence From The Nfl Draft 1999–2012," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 1317-1330, April.
    5. J.D. Pitts & B. Evans, 2018. "Evidence on the importance of cognitive ability tests for NFL quarterbacks: what are the relationships among Wonderlic scores, draft positions and NFL performance outcomes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(27), pages 2957-2966, June.
    6. Ryan M. Rodenberg & Jun Woo Kim, 2011. "Precocity and labor market outcomes: Evidence from professional basketball," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2185-2190.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NFL draft; NFL productivity; talent evaluation; football; sports economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • Z22 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Labor Issues

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