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Sequential R&D Strategy for Synfuels

Author

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  • Martin L. Weitzman
  • Whitney Newey
  • Michael Rabin

Abstract

The basic point of this article is that a "crash program" mentality leads to inappropriate questions and wrong answers about policy issues in large-scale government subsidized research, like the development of synfuels. R&D funding should be viewed as a sequential decision, not a once-and-for-all choice. Using some new results in the theory of information gathering, we apply an operational sequential methodology to analyze whether the U.S. government should subsidize the development of liquid synthetic fuels from coal.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin L. Weitzman & Whitney Newey & Michael Rabin, 1981. "Sequential R&D Strategy for Synfuels," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 574-590, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:12:y:1981:i:autumn:p:574-590
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    Cited by:

    1. Sumitro Banerjee & David A. Soberman, 2013. "Product development capability and marketing strategy for new durable products," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-13-01, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
    2. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1998. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," NBER Working Papers 6745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    4. Garner, Jacqueline L. & Nam, Jouahn & Ottoo, Richard E., 2002. "Determinants of corporate growth opportunities of emerging firms," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 73-93.
    5. Kort, Peter M. & Murto, Pauli & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Uncertainty and stepwise investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-203, April.
    6. Melstrom, Richard T. & Salau, Kehinde Rilwan & Shanafelt, David W., 2019. "The Optimal Timing of Reintroducing Captive Populations Into the Wild," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 174-184.
    7. Lind, Robert C, 1995. "Intergenerational equity, discounting, and the role of cost-benefit analysis in evaluating global climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 379-389.
    8. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    9. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
    10. Viju, Crina & Kerr, William A. & Nolan, James F., 2006. "Subsidization of the Biofuel Industry: Security vs. Clean Air?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21321, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Li, Yong & James, Barclay & Madhavan, Ravi & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2006. "Real Options: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead," Working Papers 06-0114, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    12. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Heintz, Katharina & Pryce, Mary T., 2021. "A real options based decision support tool for R&D investment: Application to CO2 recycling technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 696-711.
    13. Viju, Crina & Kerr, William A., 2010. "Is The Subsidy For Biofuels The Way To Go?," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188117, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    14. Céline Bérard & Marie Perez, 2014. "Alliance Dynamics through Real Options: The Case of an Alliance between Competing Pharmaceutical Companies," Post-Print hal-04010373, HAL.
    15. Kolstad, Charles D., 2000. "Energy and Depletable Resources: Economics and Policy, 1973-1998," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 282-305, May.
    16. Bérard, Céline & Perez, Marie, 2014. "Alliance dynamics through real options: The case of an alliance between competing pharmaceutical companies," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 337-349.
    17. Viju, Crina & Kerr, William A., 2013. "Taking an option on the future: Subsidizing biofuels for energy security or reducing global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 543-548.
    18. Schimmelpfennig, David, 1995. "The option value of renewable energy: The case of climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 311-317, October.
    19. Lin, Yuanfang & Pazgal, Amit & Soberman, David A., 2021. "Who is the winner in an industry of innovation?," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 50-69.
    20. Banerjee, Sumitro & Soberman, David A., 2013. "Product development capability and marketing strategy for new durable products," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 276-291.
    21. Ottoo, Richard E., 1998. "Valuation of Internal Growth Opportunities: The Case of a Biotechnology Company," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 615-633.

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