IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0311.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme movements of the Russian stock market and their consequences for management and economic modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Ankudinov, Andrei

    (Kazan Federal University, Kazan, Russian Federation)

  • Ibragimov, Rustam

    (Imperial College London, London, UK)

  • Lebedev, Oleg

    (Innopolis University, Innopolis, Russian Federation)

Abstract

The article presents the results of testing the degree of heavy-tailedness for Russian companies’ returns distributions. The estimation is based on the robust approach of log-log rank-size regressions with the optimal shift and correct standard errors. The obtained results indicate that the Russian stock market is somewhat more prone to extreme movements when compared to those of the developed as well as some developing countries. In certain cases such behavior may lead to unreliability of standard statistical methods based on variance and correlations, to negative value of portfolio diversification as well as to unreliability of some popular risk-management techniques. The obtained results may be also relevant for macroeconomic forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Extreme movements of the Russian stock market and their consequences for management and economic modeling," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 75-92.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0311
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2017_45_075-092.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 559-581, December.
    2. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
    3. Rustam Ibragimov, 2009. "Portfolio diversification and value at risk under thick-tailedness," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 565-580.
    4. Iikka Korhonen & Anatoly Peresetsky, 2016. "What Influences Stock Market Behavior in Russia and Other Emerging Countries?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1210-1225, May.
    5. Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
    6. Cont, Rama & Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe, 2000. "Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 170-196, June.
    7. Anatoly Peresetsky, 2014. "What drives the Russian stock market: world market and political shocks," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 82-95.
    8. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    9. Carmela Quintos & Zhenhong Fan & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Structural Change Tests in Tail Behaviour and the Asian Crisis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 633-663.
    10. Candelon, Bertrand & Straetmans, Stefan, 2006. "Testing for multiple regimes in the tail behavior of emerging currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1187-1205, November.
    11. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2551-2569, August.
    12. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    13. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2007. "Efficiency of linear estimators under heavy-tailedness: convolutions of [alpha]-symmetric distributions," Scholarly Articles 2623749, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    14. Gabaix, Xavier & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2004. "The evolution of city size distributions," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 53, pages 2341-2378, Elsevier.
    15. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    16. Gabaix, Xavier & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2011. "Rank − 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39.
    17. Fernandes, Nuno & Ferreira, Miguel A., 2008. "Does international cross-listing improve the information environment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 216-244, May.
    18. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Scholarly Articles 2624460, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    19. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2007. "Efficiency Of Linear Estimators Under Heavy-Tailedness: Convolutions Of Α-Symmetric Distributions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 501-517, June.
    20. Ibragimov, Marat & Ibragimov, Rustam & Kattuman, Paul, 2013. "Emerging markets and heavy tails," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2546-2559.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Makushkin, Mikhail & Lapshin, Victor, 2020. "Modelling tail dependencies between Russian and foreign stock markets: Application for market risk valuation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 57, pages 30-52.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Heavy tails and asymmetry of returns in the Russian stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 200-219.
    2. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Sanctions and the Russian stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-162.
    3. Chen, Zhimin & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2019. "One country, two systems? The heavy-tailedness of Chinese A- and H- share markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 115-141.
    4. Ibragimov, Marat & Ibragimov, Rustam & Kattuman, Paul, 2013. "Emerging markets and heavy tails," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2546-2559.
    5. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2014. "On the robustness of location estimators in models of firm growth under heavy-tailedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 25-33.
    6. Walter Distaso & Rustam Ibragimov & Alexander Semenov & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "COVID-19: Tail Risk and Predictive Regressions," Papers 2009.02486, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    7. Ibragimov Marat & Khamidov Rufat, 2010. "Heavy-Tailedness and Volatility in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets: Theory and Empirics," EERC Working Paper Series 10/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    8. Tong, Bin & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2012. "Risk concentration of aggregated dependent risks: The second-order properties," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 139-149.
    9. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    10. Ibragimov, Rustam & Prokhorov, Artem, 2016. "Heavy tails and copulas: Limits of diversification revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 102-107.
    11. Gu, Zhiye & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2018. "The “Cubic Law of the Stock Returns” in emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 182-190.
    12. Rustam Ibragimov & Paul Kattuman & Anton Skrobotov, 2021. "Robust Inference on Income Inequality: $t$-Statistic Based Approaches," Papers 2105.05335, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    13. Marat Ibragimov & Rustam Ibragimov, 2018. "Heavy tails and upper-tail inequality: The case of Russia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 823-837, March.
    14. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
    15. Ibragimov, Rustam & Jaffee, Dwight & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Diversification disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 333-348, February.
    16. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2016. "Breaking down the barriers between econophysics and financial economics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 256-266.
    17. Guohua Peng & Fan Xia, 2016. "The size distribution of exporting and non-exporting firms in a panel of Chinese provinces," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95, pages 71-85, March.
    18. Fernando Rubiera-Morollón & Ignacio del Rosal & Alberto Díaz-Dapena, 2015. "Can large cities explain the aggregate movements of economies? Testing the ‘granular hypothesis’ for US counties," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 109-118, July.
    19. DiTraglia, Francis J. & Gerlach, Jeffrey R., 2013. "Portfolio selection: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 305-323.
    20. Ramos, Arturo & Sanz-Gracia, Fernando & González-Val, Rafael, 2013. "A new framework for the US city size distribution: Empirical evidence and theory," MPRA Paper 52190, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    extreme movements; stock returns; heavy tails; returns asymmetry; risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.