La política económica de las crisis financieras: una aproximación empírica
The paper presents a model of political loss to analyze the interrelationship between the political nature of economic decisions and their influence on the probability of financial crisis. Two different definitions of crises, currency and balance of payments, are used to verify the explanatory power of political factors on both definitions of crisis. Also, a probit model is used on a sample of 63 countries between 1985 and 2000. The statistical evidence shows that while political factors are robust when they explain currency crises, they are more ambiguous in the explanation of balance of payments crises.
Volume (Year): 10 (2008)
Issue (Month): 18 (January-June)
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- Allan Drazen, 1999.
"Political Contagion in Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Mulder, Christian, 2000.
"Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-30, October.
- Shatz, Howard J. & Tarr, David G., 2000. "Exchange rate overvaluation and trade protection - lessons from experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2289, The World Bank.
- Robison, Richard & Rosser, Andrew, 1998. "Contesting reform: Indonesia's new order and the IMF," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1593-1609, August.
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