IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rbs/ijbrss/v13y2024i5p482-493.html

Cointegrating and causality relationship between exports and economic growth: case for Botswana

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Chiwira

    (BA ISAGO University)

  • Lovemore Muchingami

    (BA ISAGO University)

  • Lawrence Jambani

    (BA ISAGO University)

Abstract

The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds model to test for cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto and Dolado and Lütkepohl (TYDL) model to examine the direction of causality between exports and economic growth for Botswana covering the period 1980 to 2021. Exports statistically positively affect economic growth both in the short-run and long-run and trade openness is detrimental to economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. Economic growth promotes exports both in the short-run and long-run. Economic growth granger causes exports and indirectly influences exports through trade openness and consumer price index. Furthermore, there exists bidirectional causality between economic growth and the consumer price index. The findings underscore the importance of maintaining a healthy and stable macroeconomic environment in Botswana. In addition, a well-rounded approach that considers both export-oriented industrialization and import substitution strategies remains essential for a robust economic growth trajectory. Key Words:ARDL; Cointegration; Economic growth; Exports; Botswana

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Chiwira & Lovemore Muchingami & Lawrence Jambani, 2024. "Cointegrating and causality relationship between exports and economic growth: case for Botswana," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(5), pages 482-493, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbs:ijbrss:v:13:y:2024:i:5:p:482-493
    DOI: 10.20525/ijrbs.v13i5.3294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssbfnet.com/ojs/index.php/ijrbs/article/view/3294/2403
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v13i5.3294
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20525/ijrbs.v13i5.3294?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 2016. "Resources and Economic Growth," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 61(1), pages 52-60, March.
    4. Raju GUNTUKULA, 2018. "Exports, imports and economic growth in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 221-230, Summer.
    5. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi & Emmanuel Cleeve, 2018. "Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 341-365, September.
    6. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi & Emmanuel Cleeve, 2018. "Publisher Correction: Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 367-369, September.
    7. Khaled R.M. ELBEYDI & Abdulbaset M. HAMUDA & Vladimir GAZDA, 2010. "The Relationship between Export and Economic Growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 1(1(542)), pages 69-76, January.
    8. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    9. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "How stable is the export-led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 229-235.
    10. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:12:y:2017:i:3:p:63-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    12. Ibrahim Huseyni & Mirac Eren & Ali Kemal Celik, 2017. "Examining the Relationship Among Economic Growth, Exports and Total Productivity for OECD Countries Using Data Envelopment Analysis and Panel Data Analyses," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(3), pages 63-73.
    13. Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Reinvest the relationship between exports and economic growth in African countries: New insights from innovative econometric methods," MPRA Paper 108785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Epaminondas Panas & George Vamvoukas, 2002. "Further evidence on the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 731-735.
    15. Hakan Çetintaş & Salih Barişik, 2009. "Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 15(4), pages 636-649, February.
    16. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    17. Brock, William A, 1974. "Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 750-777, October.
    18. Oana Cristina Popovici & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2016. "Economic Growth, Foreign Investments and Exports in Romania: A VECM Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 95-122, September.
    19. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 7(1), pages 13-23, June.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    21. Hicks, J. R., 1969. "A Theory of Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198811633.
    22. Oxley, Les, 1993. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal, 1865-1985," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 163-166.
    23. Muna Sulaiman & Norma Md. Saad, 2009. "An analysis of export performance and economic growth of Malaysia using co-integraton and error correction models," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(1), pages 217-231, September.
    24. Malefa Rose Malefane & Mariam Camarero, 2020. "Trade openness and economic growth in Botswana: Evidence from cointegration and error-correction modelling," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1783878-178, January.
    25. Dierk Herzer, 2007. "How does trade composition affect productivity? Evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 909-912.
    26. Malefa R. Malefane & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2016. "The Evolution of Trade Policy in Botswana," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 8(1), pages 22-34, January.
    27. Ali F. Darrat, 1986. "Trade and Development: The Asian Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 695-699, Fall.
    28. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    29. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    30. Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(6), pages 796-796.
    31. Thornton, John, 1996. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 413-416, March.
    32. Oscar Chiwira & Lovemore Muchingami & Lawrence Jambani, 2023. "Exports and economic growth: relationships and threshold analysis for the Southern Africa customs union," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 12(8), pages 274-288, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Enock Gava & Molepa Seabela & Kanayo Ogujiuba, 2025. "The Effect of Trade Openness on Environmental Quality in Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Countries: The CS-ARDL Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-25, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kalaitzi Athanasia Stylianou & Kherfi Samer & Alrousan Sahel & Katsaiti Marina-Selini, 2022. "Are Non-Primary Exports the Source for Further Economic Growth in the UAE?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, April.
    2. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI01, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    4. Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AERI0121, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised 25 Aug 2021.
    5. Oscar Chiwira, 2023. "Examining the co-integrating relationship between financial development and economic growth," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 12(5), pages 269-285, July.
    6. Byoungki Kim & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Kenji Nozaki & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2022. "Does the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Myanmar?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 48-60, February.
    7. repec:afa:wpaper:aesriwp02 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan, 2016. "Energy use, international trade and economic growth nexus in Australia: New evidence from an extended growth model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 806-816.
    9. Arshia Amiri & Ulf-G Gerdtham, 2012. "Granger Causality Between Exports, Imports and GDP in France: Evidance from Using Geostatistical Models," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 43-59, May.
    10. Athanasia Stylianou Kalaitzi, 2024. "Skill intensity in manufacturing exports: Do basic, technology-intensive or differentiated exports cause growth in Kuwait?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1-30, October.
    11. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "On the dynamics of aggregate output, electricity consumption and exports in Malaysia: Evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1963-1971, June.
    12. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    14. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2011. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3348-3354.
    15. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "How stable is the export-led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 229-235.
    16. Hummera Saleem & Malik Shahzad & Muhammad Bilal Khan & Bashir Ahmad Khilji, 2019. "Innovation, total factor productivity and economic growth in Pakistan: a policy perspective," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Nesrine Gafsi & Sayef Bakari, 2024. "Impacts of Agricultural CO2 Emissions, Agricultural Exports and Financial Development on Economic Growth: Insights from East Asia and Pacific Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 136-153, November.
    18. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    19. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," MPRA Paper 27962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman, 2014. "The Dynamics of Exports, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Pakistan: New Extensions from Cointegration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 53225, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2014.
    21. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2013. "Exploring the nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth, energy prices and technology innovation in Malaysia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 297-305.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbs:ijbrss:v:13:y:2024:i:5:p:482-493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Umit Hacioglu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbffea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.