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Réussir sa sortie. Une analyse des dépréciations de 1992 en Italie et au Royaume-Uni

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  • Bruno Coquet
  • Hervé Le Bihan

Abstract

[fre] Cet article propose un bilan et une interprétation des dépréciations de la lire et de la livre sterling en 1992. Nous montrons que ces sorties du SME ne sont pas des dévaluations compétitives ; elles peuvent être considérées comme des réussites du point de vue de la politique économique. Nous indiquons les contributions des chocs de politique économique et des chocs de comportement — notamment la modération salariale — aux évolutions macroéconomiques dans les deux pays. Nous montrons comment ces dépréciations ont permis à l'Italie de limiter le coût macroéconomique de l'ajustement de ses finances publiques, et au Royaume-Uni d'accélérer sa reprise et le rétablissement de ses comptes extérieurs. [eng] This article reviews macroeconomic developments in Italy and the United Kingdom after the 1992 EMS crisis. We show that these experiences are not competitive devaluations ; they are parts of successful policy mix strategies. We exhibit the contributions of various shocks (fiscal policies, monetary policies, private behaviours - especially wage slowdown) to those developments. We point out the positive impacts of these depreciations, which limited macroeconomic costs of fiscal restructuring in Italy, and favoured British recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Coquet & Hervé Le Bihan, 1997. "Réussir sa sortie. Une analyse des dépréciations de 1992 en Italie et au Royaume-Uni," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 60(1), pages 39-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1997_num_60_1_1443
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1997.1443
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1997.1443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morgan, Julian, 1996. "What Do Comparisons Of The Last Two Economic Recoveries Tell Us About The UK Labour Market?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 156, pages 80-91, May.
    2. repec:sae:niesru:v:156:y::i:1:p:80-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. John Williamson, 1991. "FEERs and the ERM," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 137(1), pages 45-50, August.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
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